| 云南月气候变化的一种多时间序列预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 段旭,李敏,尤卫红.云南月气候变化的一种多时间序列预测模型[J].高原气象,2001,20(4):441-446. |
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| 作者姓名： | 段旭 李敏 尤卫红 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省气象台, |
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| 基金项目： | 国家"九五"重中之重科技攻关项目云南专题(969080508);西南专题(969080505)的共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了充分利用过去和现在对气候系统进行定时观测而积累的大量数据 ,本文提出了月气候变化的一种多时间序列逐月滚动预测模型 ,并从与云南月气候变化有某种物理关系的 2 0多个时间序列出发 ,实际建立了一个云南月气候变化的多时间序列逐月滚动预测模型。在提前预测的时间尺度为 2个月的条件下 ,该模型对云南 80个气象观测站点 1995年 1月— 1999年 10月的逐月雨量和气温预测结果检验的最新业务标准评分平均可分别达到 6 6 .7%和 79.0 %。该评分成绩已明显高于云南省气象台目前的实际业务预测水平 ,并达到了“九五”攻关的目标要求 ,因此该模型的建立具有重要的实际意义
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| 关 键 词： | 月气候变化 多时间序列 逐月滚动预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0534(2001)04-0441-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年2月29日 |
A Multi-timeseries Forecast Model of Monthly Climate Change in Yunnan |
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| DUAN Xu,LI Min,YOU Wei-hong.A Multi-timeseries Forecast Model of Monthly Climate Change in Yunnan[J].Plateau Meteorology,2001,20(4):441-446. |
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| Authors: | DUAN Xu LI Min YOU Wei-hong |
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| Abstract: | In order to make full use of the accumulative huge data of climate monitor so far, this paper establishes a multi-timeseries forecast mode1 of monthly climate change for Yunnan province. By using over 20 time series which there is a certain physical relations with the monthly climate change of Yunnan province, an actual monthly climate change forecast model for Yunnan province has been established. In the case of two month ahead, the verifications of precipitation and temperature forecasts for Yunna province show that the operational forecast average scores of this model can reach 66.7% and 79.0% during the period of January 1995\_October 1999, respectively. These scores are sharply superior over the present operational level of Meteorological Observatory of Yunnan province and achieve the goal of studies of the ninth five-year plan. This newly established model is important for actual short-range climate forecast. |
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| Keywords: | Monthly climate changes Multi-timeseries Moving monthly forecast |
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