| 美国国家气象中心定量降雨预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 林明智.美国国家气象中心定量降雨预报[J].气象,1997,23(11):3-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林明智 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气象中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 美国国家气象中心自１９６０年开始实施定量降雨预报及其检验方案直至１９９３年３３年间，定量降雨预报从广泛依靠预报员经验的人工方法转变到更多依靠对数值模式的解释和修正３的方法，这是预报技术的一大进步。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水预报 定量降水预报 雨量预报 美国 |
Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the NMC U. S, A |
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| Lin Mingzhi.Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the NMC U. S, A[J].Meteorological Monthly,1997,23(11):3-6. |
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| Authors: | Lin Mingzhi |
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| Abstract: | According to the treatises writen by David , Shunman and Sullivan , routine operation , verifi- cation procedures and evaluation of 33 years of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting at the NMC U . S. A were reviewed. Verification graphs show steady improvements in forecast accuracy , especially for the longer- range forecasts , which in this context are those in the 24 - 60h range. During the 1960s the Threat Score (TS) for day- 2 forecasts for 1 inch or more of precipitation was averaged approxi- mately 0. 07 . During recent years , that score has nearly doubled , and the 36 - 60h period forecast in 1993 had a TS comparable to that for the 12 -- 36h period during the 1960s. |
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| Keywords: | : U S A quantitative precipitation forecasting review verification procedure |
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