| 基于Copula的区域水文干旱频率分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周玉良,袁潇晨,金菊良,郦建强,宋松柏.基于Copula的区域水文干旱频率分析[J].地理科学,2011,31(11):1383-1388. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周玉良 袁潇晨 金菊良 郦建强 宋松柏 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 安徽 合肥 230009;2. 水利部水利水电规划设计总院, 北京 100120;3. 西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院, 陕西 杨凌 712100 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(项目编号201001043); 国家自然科学基金项目(51079037,51109052)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 以径流量为水文干旱指标,通过径流量距平百分率和径流量累积频率两种方法识别水文干旱特征变量,并以适线法确定单个干旱特征变量的分布曲线,在此基础上利用Archimedean Copula函数构建了干旱历时与干旱烈度间的联合分布,并计算干旱重现期。应用研究结果表明:用Copula函数,得以上两种识别法提取的干旱历时和干旱烈度的联合概率分布,其重现期计算结果与区域实际受旱状况相符,其中径流量距平百分率法相对更优、更直观;适线法避免了基于样本数据估计分布函数参数的不合理性,使基于Copula函数的频率分析结果更可靠。
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| 关 键 词： | 水文干旱 频率分析 Copula函数 适线 干旱阈值 干旱灾害风险管理 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-04-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011-06-03 |
Regional Hydrological Drought Frequency Based on Copulas |
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| ZHOU Yu-liang,YUAN Xiao-chen,JIN Ju-liang,LI Jian-qiang,SONG Song-bai.Regional Hydrological Drought Frequency Based on Copulas[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(11):1383-1388. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Yu-liang YUAN Xiao-chen JIN Ju-liang LI Jian-qiang SONG Song-bai |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui 230009, China;2. Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China;3. College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forest University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China |
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| Abstract: | Considering the runoff as a hydrological drought indicator,this paper describes the identification of hydrological drought characteristic variables via the anomaly and cumulative approaches.Building upon the frequency distribution of each drought characteristic variable from the curve fitting method and taking advantage of the Archimedean Copulas,the joint distribution of drought duration and severity were constructed and accordingly the drought return periods were estimated.The proposed method for drought ... |
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| Keywords: | hydrological drought frequency analysis Copula function curve fitting drought threshold risk management of drought disaster |
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