| 气候变暖背景下塔里木盆地水资源可持续利用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李艳,张鹏飞,唐晓春.气候变暖背景下塔里木盆地水资源可持续利用[J].地理科学,2011,31(11):1403-1408. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李艳 张鹏飞 唐晓春 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广东商学院资源与环境学院, 广东 广州 510320;2. 广东嘉应学院地理科学与旅游学院, 广东 梅州 514015 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41001019)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据塔里木盆地水循环的特点,从系统的观点出发定义塔里木盆地水资源可持续利用的定量化概念,建立了水文循环的系统动力学模型。从模型可以看出,径流量主要由降水量、冰雪贮水量决定,而降水量又由内、外循环系数及系统贮水量决定。仿真模拟结果显示:在温度升高的背景下,系统贮水量减少,水资源系统恶化;水资源系统对内、外循环转化率变化非常敏感。因塔里木盆地降水转化率与全国相比很低,具有改善的潜力,考虑盆地独特地形条件及气候系统特征,从概念上分析人工影响塔里木盆地水文循环的可能及途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 塔里木盆地 系统动力学 仿真 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-01-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2011-03-08 |
Sustainable Utilization Analysis of Water Resources under the Background of Climate Warming in Tarim Basin |
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| LI Yan,ZHANG Peng-fei,TANG Xiao-chun.Sustainable Utilization Analysis of Water Resources under the Background of Climate Warming in Tarim Basin[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2011,31(11):1403-1408. |
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| Authors: | LI Yan ZHANG Peng-fei TANG Xiao-chun |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Resources and Environment, Guangdong University of Business Studies, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510320, China;2. Geography Science and Travel College, Jiaying University, Meizhou, Guangdong 514015, China |
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| Abstract: | From the view of systemic theory,based on the water cycle character,the paper puts forward the quantitative concept of water sustainable utilization in Tarim basin,and builds up the System Dynamic(SD) model of water cycle in Tarim basin.From the model the conclusion can be drawn that water resource is decided by the quantity of precipitation and solid water from the mountains and the precipitation is decided by the recycle coefficient and water storage of the system.The computer simulating results show that... |
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| Keywords: | climate change Tarim basin System Dynamic simulation sustainable utilization |
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