| Abstract: | There is every indication that Africa's population growth will remain well above the world average for the remainder of this decade and probably for the rest of this century. With the exception of the island states and parts of North Africa, fertility levels show little indication of change. This is in part a reflection of little desire for small families, as well as a consequence of limited or even restricted family planning services. Great diversity in attitudes regarding population policy prevails among African governments, ranging from extreme pronatal to committed antinatal. Even with antinatal policies, however, many African states have yet to attain any significant success in depressing their rates of growth. To date, Mauritius can be cited as the only state to have almost achieved the transition from high to low fertility. The consequence of these continuing trends is that Africa will see further increases in its youth dependency ratio. Pressures on infrastructural services will therefore increase, and the problems of generating employment will intensify. While demographic factors are by no means the only ones creating economic stress on the continent, they clearly are contributory. Unlike Asia or parts of Latin America, Africa's problem is less a matter of too many people but rather 1 of excessive growth in too short a time frame. A realistic and effective long-term population policy, therefore, is an immediate need. Several countries including Nigeria (with a pouplation of over 80 million) are experiencing a crude birth rate of 50 or more/1,000. At least 4 countries, including Kenya, are currently doubling their population in 20 years or less. With these current population trends, a demographic transition to low vital rates must assume passage through an even higher growth phase than is currently being experienced because the fall in birth rates tends to occur much later than the fall in death rates. Government population policies and the status of family planning activities are illustrated according to natal sentiments and attitudes. Trends in national vital rates and of population structures in Africa are illustrated. |
