Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality |
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| Authors: | Scott C Sheridan Michael J Allen Cameron C Lee Laurence S Kalkstein |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH, USA
2. Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA
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| Abstract: | Through the 21st century, a significant increase in heat events is likely across California (USA). Beyond any climate change, the state will become more vulnerable through demographic changes resulting in a rapidly aging population. To assess these impacts, future heat-related mortality estimates are derived for nine metropolitan areas in the state for the remainder of the century. Heat-related mortality is first assessed by initially determining historical weather-type mortality relationships for each metropolitan area. These are then projected into the future based on predicted weather types created in Part I. Estimates account for several levels of uncertainty: for each metropolitan area, mortality values are produced for five different climate model-scenarios, three different population projections (along with a constant-population model), and with and without partial acclimatization. Major urban centers could have a greater than tenfold increase in short-term increases in heat-related mortality in the over 65 age group by the 2090s. |
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