| 自然灾害风险评估与分级方法论探研——以山西省地震灾害风险为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘毅,吴绍洪,徐中春,戴尔阜.自然灾害风险评估与分级方法论探研——以山西省地震灾害风险为例[J].地理研究,2011,30(2):195-208. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘毅 吴绍洪 徐中春 戴尔阜 |
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| 作者单位： | 刘毅,吴绍洪,戴尔阜,LIU Yi,WU Shao-hong,DAI Erfu(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101);徐中春,XU Zhong-chun(中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049) |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程方向项目，"十一五"国家科技支撑计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 自然灾害发生的可能损失一直是灾害风险评估上的难题.本研究以自然灾害风险评估经典模型为基础,提出了新的自然灾害风险评估与风险等级划分方法,利用历史灾情和孕灾环境解决风险评价中致灾因子破坏力与灾害发生的可能,并以山西省地震灾害风险为例进行了定量化评估研究.主要改进在于:确定灾害损失率和环境参数以建立地震灾害可能损失计算模型...
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| 关 键 词： | 风险 风险评估 分级方法 地震灾害 山西省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-10-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010-01-12 |
Methodology for assessment and classification of natural disaster risk:A case study on seismic disaster in Shanxi Province |
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| LIU Yi,WU Shao-hong,XU Zhong-chun,DAI Erfu.Methodology for assessment and classification of natural disaster risk:A case study on seismic disaster in Shanxi Province[J].Geographical Research,2011,30(2):195-208. |
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| Authors: | LIU Yi WU Shao-hong XU Zhong-chun DAI Erfu |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | The study on possible losses is one of the most important points for disaster risk management. In this paper, the classical disaster risk-assessing model was modified to assess natural disasters risks, especially in quantifying possible loss and risk severe level. Disaster risk was attributed to three main factors: disaster damage force (D), disaster resilience society exposure (E), and disaster-breeding environment (P). Disaster risk is the function of these three factors. Damage force (D) indicates damage rate of a disaster in a certain intensity, which might be obtained from results of disaster events in the past. Exposure (E) includes mainly personnel, property/economic and natural resources. D and E give the quantified vulnerability of a region. Disaster-breeding environment (P) gives the occurrence possibility of environmental conditions, such as geological structure, land surface materials, land cover, and cycling occurrence event etc. P was characterized by a parameter in this paper. Shanxi Province, a high frequent earthquake region, was taken as a case study. In the case, D and E were concerned with issues of structure of buildings, casualty rate (mortality/wounded) and GDP. Parameter of P was determined by combining historical seismic integrated intensity, seismic activity fault belts distribution, and seismic peak ground acceleration. The basic risk calculating unit was based on the county level. After possible losses were calculated, integrated loss levels and their severe levels were ranked with relative calculation on standard deviation. The results showed that: the damaged building might be more 3 million rooms, the direct economic loss would be over 13 billion RMB Yuan, and the total casualty could be near 300 thousand. In Shanxi Province, there were great differences between counties in terms of the integrated risk. Integrated risk levels were ranked into four classes. In general, high risk would mainly occur in urban areas. The highest risk level was observed in districts under the jurisdiction of 15 cities such as Taiyuan, Datong and Jinzhong. This method has improved in two aspects: firstly quantifying possible losses, and secondly avoiding the constraint in disaster prediction to make the calculation possible. |
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| Keywords: | risk risk assessment riskiness level classification seismic disaster Shanxi Province |
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