The Kuril Earthquakes and tsunamis of November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007: Observations,analysis, and numerical modeling |
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| Authors: | L I Lobkovsky A B Rabinovich E A Kulikov A I Ivashchenko I V Fine R E Thomson T N Ivelskaya G S Bogdanov |
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| Institution: | (1) Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia;(2) Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada;(3) Sakhalin Department of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environment Monitoring, Tsunami Center, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693002, Russia;(4) Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Russia |
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| Abstract: | Major earthquakes occurred in the region of the Central Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006 (M w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w = 8.1). These earthquakes generated strong tsunamis recorded throughout the entire Pacific Ocean. The first was the strongest trans-Pacific tsunami of the past 42 years (since the Alaska tsunami in 1964). The high probability of a strong earthquake (M w ≥ 8.5) and associated destructive tsunami occurring in this region was predicted earlier. The most probable earthquake source region was investigated and possible scenarios for the tsunami generation were modeled. Investigations of the events that occurred on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, enabled us to estimate the validity of the forecast and compare the parameters of the forecasted and observed earthquakes and tsunamis. In this paper, we discuss the concept of “seismic gaps,” which formed the basis for the forecast of these events, and put forward further assumptions about the expected seismic activity in the region. We investigate the efficiency of the tsunami warning services and estimate the statistical parameters for the observed tsunami waves that struck the Far Eastern coast of Russia and Northern Japan. The propagation and transformation of the 2006 and 2007 tsunamis are studied using numerical hydrodynamic modeling. The spatial characteristics of the two events are compared. |
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