| 东营市短期气候预测系统设计及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙忠欣,侯淑梅,李乐荣,杨奎广.东营市短期气候预测系统设计及应用[J].河南气象,2006(1):23-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙忠欣 侯淑梅 李乐荣 杨奎广 |
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| 作者单位： | 东营市气象局 山东东营257091 |
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| 摘 要： | 东营市短期气候预测系统使用逐步回归、最优子集回归、BP人工神经元网络和多因子EOF迭代4种因子预报模型,以及3个以均生函数为基函数的多步预测模型,并通过集成得出预报结论。因子普查时,采用滚动式相关分析方法,保证了入选因子的稳定性。
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| 关 键 词： | 滚动式相关分析 预测模型 集成预报 业务应用 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-6372（2006）01-0023-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-08-17 |
Design and Application of the Short -range Climatic Forecast System of Dongying |
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| SUN Zhong - xin, HOU Shu - mei, LI Le - rong, YANG Kui - guang.Design and Application of the Short -range Climatic Forecast System of Dongying[J].Meteorology Journal of Henan,2006(1):23-24. |
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| Authors: | SUN Zhong - xin HOU Shu - mei LI Le - rong YANG Kui - guang |
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| Institution: | Dongying Meteorological Bureau, Dongying 257091, China |
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| Abstract: | We introduce the researching method and the application circumstances of the short - range climate prediction system in Dongying city. The system includes stepwise regression,optimal subset regression ,BP -artificial neural network and multi - factors EOF iteration models and three multi - steps models based on mean generating function, then we get the conclusion through integration. The rolling- correlative analysis method make the factors more steadyly. |
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| Keywords: | Rolling correlative analysis Forecast model Integrated prediction Operational application |
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