Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations |
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| Authors: | Jonathan Rougier |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Durham, Science Site, Stockton Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK |
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| Abstract: | This paper describes an approach to computing probabilistic assessments of future climate, using a climate model. It clarifies
the nature of probability in this context, and illustrates the kinds of judgements that must be made in order for such a prediction
to be consistent with the probability calculus. The climate model is seen as a tool for making probabilistic statements about
climate itself, necessarily involving an assessment of the model’s imperfections. A climate event, such as a 2^C increase in global mean temperature, is identified with a region of ‘climate-space’, and the ensemble of model evaluations
is used within a numerical integration designed to estimate the probability assigned to that region. |
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