A correspondence between the model ensemble simulations and observations of temperature changes on the territory of Russia |
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| Authors: | P V Sporyshev V M Kattsov V A Matyugin |
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| Institution: | 1.Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory,St. Petersburg,Russia |
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| Abstract: | The results are presented of the statistical analysis of correspondence between the model simulations and observations of
temperature changes on the territory of Russia. Three model ensembles are considered, differing in the level of taking account
of the impact of external forcings on the climate system of the Earth. For each of them, the statistical correspondence is
estimated between the observed surface air temperature variations in the second half of the 20th century and at the beginning
of the 21st century and model simulations taking account of the natural variability typical of the climate system. The analysis
demonstrated that, in spite of the uncertainties associated with the differences in the representation of anthropogenic and
natural external forcings on the climate in model simulations as well as with the imperfection of climate models and with
internal variability of the climate system, the model experiments enable to obtain the relevant information both on the temporal
evolution of temperature changes on the territory of Russia and on their spatial peculiarities. |
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