| 新源县杏花始花期气象预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋晓新,吾米提.居马太,张国栋,张琦,沈晓辉.新源县杏花始花期气象预报研究[J].新疆气象,2021,15(6):103-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋晓新 吾米提.居马太 张国栋 张琦 沈晓辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 伊犁州气象局,伊犁州气象局,伊犁州气象局,伊犁州气象局,伊犁州气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了更准确地提供杏花始花期的预报，利用新源县1996—2020年的始花期观测数据以及同期气象资料，统计分析关键影响因子，建立预报模式。结果表明：新源县杏花始花期平均出现在4月5日，最早最晚始花期相差28 d，近22a来始花期提前约4 d。始花期前的气温、日照、0℃积温等对始花期有明显影响，采用逐步回归方法，得到了新源县杏花始花期的预报模型,回代检验中始花期预报值与实际值相差0~2d的准确率达到63.6%，相差3 d的准确率为27.2%，2018—2020年的试报服务预测值与实际值之间相差分别2 d、1 d、3 d，可为花期专题气象服务提供理论参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 杏花 花期 气象预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/3/6 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/11/19 0:00:00 |
Study on Prediction of Apricot Flowering Date in Xinyuan County |
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| Song Xiaoxin,and.Study on Prediction of Apricot Flowering Date in Xinyuan County[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2021,15(6):103-107. |
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| Authors: | Song Xiaoxin and |
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| Abstract: | In order to provide the forecast of the beginning flowering period of apricot flower more accurately, the key influence factors are statistically analyzed and the forecast model is established, according to the observation data of the beginning flowering period of apricot and the meteorological data from 1996 to 2020. The results showed that, the average flowering time of apricot flower was on April 5th in Xinyuan county. The earliest flowering differed 28 days from the latest. And the beginning flowering was about 4 days in advance in the last 22 years. The meteorological factor had obvious influence on the initial flowering period, such as the temperature, relative humidity, sunshine, precipitation, ground temperature. By stepwise regression method, the prediction model of the beginning flowering period of apricot was established. Using the forecast model established by the key influence factors, the accuracy of the difference between the initial flowering period forecast value and the actual value in the back test was 63.6%, the error was 3 day, and the accuracy was 27.2%,and the initial flowering date in 2018-2020 were predicted, the difference between the predicted value and the observed were 2 days,1 day,3 days, which can provide a theoretical reference for the special meteorological service of flowering period. |
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| Keywords: | Apricot Flowering date Meteorological prediction |
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