| 由层次法讨论1994年台湾海峡强震的孕育和发生 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦保燕.由层次法讨论1994年台湾海峡强震的孕育和发生[J].华南地震,1998,18(2):21-26,36. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦保燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局兰州地震研究所!兰州730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然基金资助项目(49674210) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于复杂震源系统,研究强震孕震期的阶段性划分和孕震后期非线性阶段层次的时空演化特征,以此进行强震的长中短临预报,这种非线性的统计预报方法简称层次法.本文简要介绍强震孕育的综合模式和层次法的原理及实现步骤,并应用该法对1994年9月16日台湾海峡7.3级强震的整个孕震过程和预报问题进行了讨论.
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 震源 孕育模式 层次法 台湾海峡 地震 |
DISCUSS ON PREPARATION AND OCCURRENCE OF WITH"LEVEL METHOD" 1994'S TAIWAN STRAITSTRONG EARTHQUAKE |
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| Qin Baoyan Liu Yaowei Earthquake Research Institute of Lanzhuo,CSB.DISCUSS ON PREPARATION AND OCCURRENCE OF WITH"LEVEL METHOD" 1994'S TAIWAN STRAITSTRONG EARTHQUAKE[J].South China Journal of Seismology,1998,18(2):21-26,36. |
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| Authors: | Qin Baoyan Liu Yaowei Earthquake Research Institute of Lanzhuo CSB |
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| Institution: | Qin Baoyan Liu Yaowei Earthquake Research Institute of Lanzhuo,CSB,730000 |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of the comprehensive model about complex source region mechanism dividing stage of strong earthquake preparation period and the space-time pattern of non-linear stage in latter preparation period were studied, the results is used for long-medium-short term earthquake prediction, this is a non-linear statistic prediction method, or called "level method" In this paper, the comprehensive model of strong earthquake forming mechanism and basic principle and implement step is introduced. Then the preparation process and predicition of the Taiwan Strait Ms7.3 earthquaken on September 16, 1994 are discussed with "level method". |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake prediction Focal development pattern Level Method Taiwan strait earthquake |
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