| Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 |
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| 作者姓名： | Ke-Jun Li Peng-Xin Gao and Tong-Wei Su National Astronomical Observatories Yunnan Observatory Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing |
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| 作者单位： | Ke-Jun Li，Peng-Xin Gao and Tong-Wei Su National Astronomical Observatories，Yunnan Observatory，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Kunming 650011; Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100049 |
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| 摘 要： | A simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle (cycle 24). Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle (as is more likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 (±2 months) and the maximum, around March 2011 (±9 months), and the amplitude is 189.9 ±15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. If we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle (as is less likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 (±2 months) and the maximum, about February 2013 (±8 months) and the maximum will be about 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.
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| 关 键 词： | 太阳活动 太阳物理学 太阳周期 尺寸大小 时间 |
Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 |
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| Ke-Jun Li,Peng-Xin Gao and Tong-Wei Su National Astronomical Observatories,Yunnan Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Kunming , Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing .Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24[J].Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics,2005,5(5):539-545. |
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| Authors: | Ke-Jun Li Peng-Xin Gao TongWei Su |
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| Institution: | [1]National Astronomical Observatories, Yunnan Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Kunming 650011; [2]Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | Sun: activity - Sun: sunspot - Sun: prediction |
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