Patterns and causes of uncertainty in the American Community Survey |
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| Institution: | 1. International Centre for Circulatory Health, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, UK;2. Cardiovascular Center Bethanien, Frankfurt, Germany;3. Brigham and Women''s Hospital Heart and Vascular Center, Boston, MA 02115, United States;4. Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA;5. Piedmont Heart Institute, Atlanta, GA, USA;1. Department of Surgery, Brody School of Medicine at East Carolina University;2. Center for Health Equity and Quality Research, University of Florida College of Medicine Jacksonville;3. Department of Surgery, University of Florida College of Medicine Jacksonville;4. Department of Pediatric Surgery, University of Florida College of Medicine Jacksonville |
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| Abstract: | In 2010 the American Community Survey (ACS) replaced the long form of the United States decennial census. The ACS is now the principal source of high-resolution geographic information about the U.S. population. The margins of error on ACS census tract-level data are on average 75 percent larger than those of the corresponding 2000 long-form estimate. The practical implications of this increase is that data are sometimes so imprecise that they are difficult to use. This paper explains why the ACS tract and block group estimates have large margins of error. Statistical concepts are explained in plain English. ACS margins of error are attributed to specific methodological decisions made by the Census Bureau. These decisions are best seen as compromises that attempt to balance financial constraints against concerns about data quality, timeliness, and geographic precision. In addition, demographic and geographic patterns in ACS data quality are identified. These patterns are associated with demographic composition of census tracts. Understanding the fundamental causes of uncertainty in the survey suggests a number of geographic strategies for improving the usability and quality ACS. |
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| Keywords: | American Community Survey Census tract Small area estimation Margin of error Uncertainty |
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