| Synthetic Model for Prediction Seismic Risk in About 10 Years |
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| 作者姓名： | Jin Xueshen Dai Yinghua and Liu Yunqing Seismologicai Bureau of Hebei Province Shijiazhuang China |
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| 作者单位： | Jin Xueshen，Dai Yinghua，and Liu Yunqing Seismologicai Bureau of Hebei Province，Shijiazhuang 050021，China |
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| 基金项目： | This project was sponsored by the State Scientific and Technical Commission and State Seismological Bureau, China. |
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| 摘 要： | In this paper, the relation that strong earthquakes and seismo-geological conditions bear with precursory phenomena has been analyzed. The information content concerning the long-term (i.e., a decade) seismic risk that various precursors can provide has been estimated by using the quantitative judgment method. On such a basis, a synthetic probability model for predicting the strong earthquake risk in about 10 years has been suggested. With the northern part of North China used as the test region, the feasibility of the model which is used for medium-term to long-term prediction has been proved.
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Synthetic Model for Prediction Seismic Risk in About 10 Years |
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| Jin Xueshen,Dai Yinghua,and Liu Yunqing Seismologicai Bureau of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang ,China.Synthetic Model for Prediction Seismic Risk in About 10 Years[J].Earthquake Research in China,1996(2). |
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| Authors: | Jin Xueshen Dai Yinghua and Liu Yunqing Seismologicai Bureau of Hebei Province Shijiazhuang China |
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| Institution: | Jin Xueshen,Dai Yinghua,and Liu Yunqing Seismologicai Bureau of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the relation that strong earthquakes and seismo-geological conditions bear with precursory phenomena has been analyzed. The information content concerning the long-term (i.e., a decade) seismic risk that various precursors can provide has been estimated by using the quantitative judgment method. On such a basis, a synthetic probability model for predicting the strong earthquake risk in about 10 years has been suggested. With the northern part of North China used as the test region, the feasibility of the model which is used for medium-term to long-term prediction has been proved. |
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| Keywords: | Probability model Earthquake prediction Strong earthquake Northern part of North China |
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