| 2004年夏季短期气候集成预测及检验 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 卫捷,张庆云,陶诗言.2004年夏季短期气候集成预测及检验[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(1):19-31. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 卫捷 张庆云 陶诗言 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京,100029 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目KZCX2-SW-210、科技部奥运科技专项2001BA904B09和中国科学院奥运科技项目 KACX1-02 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 分析了2004年夏季东亚大气环流的主要特点及对我国天气与气候的影响.对可能影响2004年夏季中国降水的主要物理因子及其演变的判断基本正确.跨季度预测指出2004年夏季我国大范围严重洪涝事件的可能性不大,6～8月主雨带可能位于黄河中下游与淮河之间;并较好地预测了影响我国的台风数.对2004年夏季跨季度气候预测中存在的问题进行了初步讨论,以便改进和完善中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测系统.
|
| 关 键 词： | 气候特点 大气环流 集成气候预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-9585(2005)01-0019-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年12月20 |
The Ensemble Seasonal Climate Prediction for 2004 Summer and Its Verification |
| |
| WEI Jie,ZHANG Qing-Yun and TAO Shi-Yan.The Ensemble Seasonal Climate Prediction for 2004 Summer and Its Verification[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(1):19-31. |
| |
| Authors: | WEI Jie ZHANG Qing-Yun and TAO Shi-Yan |
| |
| Abstract: | The East Asia atmospheric circulation in the summer of 2004 as well as its impact on the climate and anomalous weather in China are analyzed. It indicates that our analysis on the physical factors and their evolution is basically correct. It was predicted that the severe flood was unlikely to occur on a large scale in the summer of 2004, and the main rain belt from June to August was located between the middle to lower reaches of the Yellow River and Huaihe River, it was also predicted the frequency of typhoon which might influence China. The possible problems on the extra-seasonal climate prediction on the summer of 2004 are further discussed, which is to improve the seasonal prediction system by the institute. |
| |
| Keywords: | climatic feature atmospheric circulation ensemble seasonal climate prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气候与环境研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气候与环境研究》下载免费的PDF全文 |
