| 基于CMIP5资料的东亚夏季环流的BMA预测研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 胡航菲,智协飞,郭换换,赵欢,朱寿鹏.基于CMIP5资料的东亚夏季环流的BMA预测研究[J].气象科学,2016,36(3):340-348. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 胡航菲 智协飞 郭换换 赵欢 朱寿鹏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044,南京信息工程大学 气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044;南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044,南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044,南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044,南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210044 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家重大科学研究计划项目（2012CB955200）；江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（PAPD）；江苏省“青蓝工程”（东亚季风与区域气候变化） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用CMIP5的17个全球气候系统模式对500 hPa位势高度场的年代际回报结果,采用距平相关系数、均方根误差、平均绝对误差及连续等级概率评分4种指标,评估了贝叶斯模式平均(Bayesian model average,BMA)预报方法对东亚夏季环流的回报能力,并与最优单模式MIROC5和多模式简单集合平均结果进行了比较。结果表明,BMA方法对东亚夏季500 hPa位势高度场的回报效果是最好的,优于最优单模式MIROC5和简单集合平均的回报结果。BMA模型能产生高集中度的概率密度函数,并包含了多模式集成回报不确定性的定量估计。此外,BMA方法对西太平洋副热带高压的年际变率也有较好的回报效果,对西太平洋副热带高压的预报,选取60~70%概率下的结果更为合理。
|
| 关 键 词： | CMIP5 贝叶斯模式平均 多模式集合预报 东亚夏季环流 西太平洋副热带高压 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/1/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2/8/2015 12:00:00 AM |
Bayesian model averaging prediction of summer circulation over East Asia based on CMIP5 data |
| |
| HU Hangfei,ZHI Xiefei,GUO Huanhuan,ZHAO Huan and ZHU Shoupeng.Bayesian model averaging prediction of summer circulation over East Asia based on CMIP5 data[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2016,36(3):340-348. |
| |
| Authors: | HU Hangfei ZHI Xiefei GUO Huanhuan ZHAO Huan and ZHU Shoupeng |
| |
| Institution: | College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China and College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China |
| |
| Abstract: | By using the decadal hindcast of the 500 hPa geopotential height field with 17 climatic system models of CMIP5, the capabilities of Bayesian Model Average (BMA) method to hindcast summer circulation over East Asia were evaluated employing assessment indexes as Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), and compared with the optimal single model MIROC5 and Multi-model Ensemble Mean (EMN). Results show that the hindcast skill of BMA for 500 hPa geopotential height is better than that of MIROC5 and EMN. BMA yields probability density function (PDF) that are calibrated and provides quantitative estimates of the uncertainty. This is also ture for the case of inter-annual variability of Subtropical High over West Pacific (WPSH), whose precipitation is more reasonable under 60-70% probability. |
| |
| Keywords: | CMIP5 BMA Muti-model ensemble prediction Summer circulation over East Asia WPSH |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
