| 全球LNG海上运输网络演化及中国贸易现状分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 梅强,胡勤友,刘希亮,赵瑞娜,杨春,王鹏,戚玉玲,杨洋,袁启睿.全球LNG海上运输网络演化及中国贸易现状分析[J].地球信息科学,2022,24(9):1701-1716. |
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| 作者姓名： | 梅强 胡勤友 刘希亮 赵瑞娜 杨春 王鹏 戚玉玲 杨洋 袁启睿 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.上海海事大学商船学院,上海 2013062.集美大学航海学院,厦门 3610213.北京工业大学软件学院,北京 1001244.海洋石油工程股份有限公司,天津 3004615.中国科学院计算技术研究所,北京 100080 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(71804059);国家自然科学基金项目(51879119);上海市科学技术委员会重大项目(18DZ1206300);福建省自然科学基金项目(2021J01821);福建省自然科学基金项目(2020J05143);福建省教育厅面上项目(JAT200265);创新基金项目(SSS002) |
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| 摘 要： | 随着“碳达峰”、“碳中和”发展目标的提出,液化天然气（Liquefied Natural Gas,简称LNG）作为清洁低碳能源逐渐受到能源市场的重视。在此背景下,重点分析LNG海上运输网络演化模式,对掌握全球能源格局动态和中国的进口贸易现状具有重要意义。本文利用船舶轨迹数据和复杂网络理论,聚焦2018—2020年全球LNG海上运输网络演化趋势;同时针对中国的贸易现状,重点分析中国LNG进口来源、主要进口港分布及进口量排名前三的进口港的货源流入状况。结果表明：① 2018—2020年,全球LNG海上运输网络呈扩大趋势,并呈现出“无标度”特性;同时骨干网络节点连接的“广度”和“深度”正在增强,全球LNG贸易存在趋于垄断的风险;② “一带一路”国家贸易参与度强,中北美、南亚和东南亚地区的进口港数量和进口航次数增长尤为明显,萨贝塔、邦尼按照贸易出口量排名已进入全球前八;③ 网络的平均最短路径值在2018—2020年逐年递增,“转运港”业务新模态逐渐兴起;截止到2020年共有21个转运港口参与LNG贸易中,美国占据全球转运的主导地位;④ 中国的LNG进口货量规模发展迅速,海上运输网络流向趋于多元,但澳大利亚仍占据主要来源地位;按照进口量统计天津港、深圳港和永安港排名前三,“减碳”压力促使经济发达地区建设接收站并且不断增大进口量。
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| 关 键 词： | 碳达峰 新冠疫情 复杂网络分析 液化天然气 一带一路 清洁能源 全球 中国 全球 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-01-12 |
Research on the Evolution of Global LNG Maritime Transportation Network and Trade Condition of China |
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| MEI Qiang,HU Qinyou,LIU Xiliang,ZHAO Ruina,YANG Chun,WANG Peng,QI Yuling,YANG Yang,YUAN Qirui.Research on the Evolution of Global LNG Maritime Transportation Network and Trade Condition of China[J].Geo-information Science,2022,24(9):1701-1716. |
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| Authors: | MEI Qiang HU Qinyou LIU Xiliang ZHAO Ruina YANG Chun WANG Peng QI Yuling YANG Yang YUAN Qirui |
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| Institution: | 1. Merchant Marine College, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China2. Navigation College, Jimei University, Xiamen 361021, China3. School of Software Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China4. Offshore Oil Engineering Company Limited, Tianjin 300461, China5. The Institute of Computing Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China |
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| Abstract: | With the proposal of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutralization", Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) has gradually garnered the attention of energy market as a clean and low-carbon energy. In this context, it is of great significance to analyze the evolution mode of the LNG maritime transport network, so as to master the dynamic of global energy pattern and the status of China's import trade. In this paper, the evolution trend of the global LNG maritime transport network from 2018 to 2020 is explored based on the ship trajectory data and complex network theory. Meanwhile, according to China's trade status, LNG import sources, distribution of main import ports, and the inflow status of the top three import ports in China are analyzed. The results show that: (1) From 2018 to 2020, the global LNG maritime transport network expanded with a “scale-free” characteristic. The "breadth" and "depth" of node connections in the backbone network are increasing, and there is a risk that global LNG trade will become monopolistic; (2) The countries along the "Belt and Road Initiative" actively participated in trade. The numbers of import ports and import voyages in Central and North America, South and Southeast Asia have significantly increased, and in particular, Sabetta and Bonny ranked the top eight globally according to their export volume; (3) The average shortest path length of the network is increasing year by year from 2018 to 2020, and the new mode of "transshipment port" business is gradually emerging. By 2020, 21 transshipment ports have participated in LNG trade, and the United States occupies the dominant position in global transshipment; (4) In recent three years, China's LNG import scale has developed rapidly, and the flow direction of the maritime transport network tends to be diversified. However, Australia is still the main LNG source for China. In terms of import volume, the ports of Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Yung'an rank the top three in China, and the pressure to reduce carbon emissions has prompted the economically developed regions to build terminals and increase imports. |
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| Keywords: | carbon peak COVID-19 complex network Analysis LNG the Belt and Road clean energy global China |
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