| 区域地理环境因素对中国流感发病的影响分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王莹婧,张明鑫,李浩,汪冉.区域地理环境因素对中国流感发病的影响分析[J].地理研究,2022,41(8):2311-2324. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王莹婧 张明鑫 李浩 汪冉 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.宁夏大学地理科学与规划学院,银川 7500212.陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,西安 710062 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41461098);宁夏自然科学基金项目(2020AAC03114) |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究中国流感发病率的时空分布规律及区域地理环境因素对流感发病的影响,通过统计分析得到中国流感发病的时间规律以及运用空间自相关分析法得到中国流感发病的空间分布特点;应用地理探测器模型、Spearman相关分析得到与流感发病相关的区域地理环境因素;根据各区域地理环境因素和流感发病率所构建的GWR模型,得到局部回归系数在中国范围内的分布特征。结果显示：以12月、1月为代表的冬季和以3月为代表的春季在同年表现出流感高发的特征。夏季流感高发的地区集中在华南、华中地区,冬季则集中在华北、西北地区。降水量对流感的发病率影响呈现出较为明显的区域特征。中国的高纬度地区,平均气温与流感的发病率呈现负相关;低纬度地区,呈现正相关。日照时数对流感发病的影响在总体上表现为负相关。平均相对湿度与流感发病率的关系在中国的西北部地区表现为明显的负相关,而在东南部地区表现为明显正相关。
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| 关 键 词： | 流感发病 区域地理环境因素 时空分布规律 地理探测器 GWR模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-07-07 |
Analysis of the influence of regional geographical environmental factors on the incidence of influenza in China |
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| WANG Yingjing,ZHANG Mingxin,LI Hao,WANG Ran.Analysis of the influence of regional geographical environmental factors on the incidence of influenza in China[J].Geographical Research,2022,41(8):2311-2324. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yingjing ZHANG Mingxin LI Hao WANG Ran |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Geography and Planning, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China2. School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of influenza incidence in China by using spatial autocorrelation analysis, and uses the geographic detector model and Spearman correlation analysis to identify the regional geographic environmental factors related to the incidence of influenza. The incidence rate of local regression coefficients in China is obtained by constructing GWR models based on geographical environment factors and influenza incidence rates. The results showed that: (1) The winter represented by December and January and the spring represented by March showed high incidence of influenza in the same year. (2) The average temperature, precipitation, average relative humidity and sunshine duration of regional geographical environmental factors were correlated with the incidence of influenza, and the correlations were different in geographical division units. In northwest and northeast China, precipitation has a negative correlation with the incidence of influenza, while in Southwest, South and East China, precipitation and the incidence of influenza are positively correlated. In the high latitudes of China, the average temperature is negatively correlated with the incidence rate of influenza, while in the low latitudes, there exists a positive correlation between the average temperature and the incidence rate of influenza. The effect of sunshine hours on the incidence of influenza is negatively correlated on the whole. The relationship between average relative humidity and the incidence of influenza showed a significant negative correlation in northwest China and a significant positive correlation in southeast China. (3) Based on the data of influenza incidence in different seasons of China from 2012 to 2017, the areas with high incidence of influenza in summer are concentrated in South and Central China, while in winter, they are concentrated in North China and Northwest China. |
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| Keywords: | incidence of influenza regional geographical environment factors spatiotemporal distribution Geodetector GWR Model |
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