| 石家庄市远郊村COVID-19传播网络解构及其流行病学解释 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜欣儒,路紫,田庆宝,闫宇航.石家庄市远郊村COVID-19传播网络解构及其流行病学解释[J].地理研究,2022,41(10):2777-2792. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜欣儒 路紫 田庆宝 闫宇航 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.河北医科大学生物学博士后科研流动站,石家庄 0500172.河北师范大学地理科学学院,石家庄 0500243.河北医科大学公共卫生学院,石家庄 050017 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国博士后科学基金项目(2021M701035);国家自然科学基金项目(42171176);河北省高层次人才资助项目(B2021003037) |
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| 摘 要： | 2021年1月石家庄市远郊村疫情是中国首次爆发于农村地区的COVID-19公共卫生紧急事件。依据941例确诊病例确诊前14 d个体移动轨迹,以传播网络结构性分析和流行病传播动力学分析为手段,对比大城市城区,拟从疫点形成、输出形式、热区扩缩三方面解构农村地区COVID-19传播网络。结论如下：① 疫点数量和类型较多。快速城市化背景下与中心城市同时并发形成新疫点;社区活跃度较高导致共同暴露疫点形成;短距离“钟摆移动”加大了个体移动轨迹交叉密度,进而增加了临时暴露疫点形成的风险。② 具有显著的个体-个体接触传染特性以及上下游输出关系链特性,家族聚集性以及家族高代次输出是二次输出现象产生的主要原因。③ 有症状确诊病例延迟决策就医致使其隐匿时间较长相对危险度较高,导致网络热区范围和扩缩时间跨度增加。基此,本文提出机场邻近区域防控扩展、潜在疫点溢出人员延长管理、风险缓冲隔离区合理划设3点建议。散发公共卫生紧急事件传播网络研究是一种有益探索,将为提高农村地区公共卫生网络韧性提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | COVID-19 传播网络 农村地区 流行病传播动力学 城市远郊村 石家庄市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-11-18 |
Deconstruction of COVID-19 transmission network and its epidemic analysis in a suburban village of Shijiazhuang in China |
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| DU Xinru,LU Zi,TIAN Qingbao,YAN Yuhang.Deconstruction of COVID-19 transmission network and its epidemic analysis in a suburban village of Shijiazhuang in China[J].Geographical Research,2022,41(10):2777-2792. |
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| Authors: | DU Xinru LU Zi TIAN Qingbao YAN Yuhang |
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| Institution: | 1. Postdoctoral Station on Biology, Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang 050017, China2. School of Geography Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China3. School of Public Health, Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang 050017, China |
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| Abstract: | In January 2021, the COVID-19 outbreak in Xiaoguozhuang Village of Shijiazhuang, the first COVID-19 public health emergency in the rural areas of China. Based on the individual trajectory data in 14 days of 941 confirmed cases, taking the transmission network structural analysis and the epidemic transmission dynamics analysis as the methods, the COVID-19 transmission network from the three aspects is deconstructed: epidemic points formation, types of outputs, and regional expansion evolution. Compared with the COVID-19 transmission network of Beijing Xinfadi Market and Dalian Kaiyang Seafood Company, the conclusions are as follows: (1) The numbers of epidemic points and types are large. In the approximate exposure time, new epidemic points will be formed simultaneously with the central city under the background of rapid urbanization. Still, high community activity leads to the formation of co-exposure to epidemic points; short distance "pendulum moves" leading to more extensive individual trajectory density, and finally resulting in the risk of temporary exposure of epidemic points. (2) It has the significant individual-individual contact infection characteristic and output chain relationship characteristic. The secondary outputs of the rural areas are due to the multigenerational family transmission, which is not seen in the urban cities. (3) Compared with the regional expansion of urban cities, the rural areas are manifested by a longer transmission period, caused by the long occult time of outbreaks and the relatively high relative risk of symptomatic confirmed cases in the rural areas. Finally, three suggestions are put forward, enlarging the management space from the terminal areas to adjacent areas around airports, and then implementing delay management on the overflow personnel based on time shift due to carrying the virus from potential epidemic points and buffering isolation area according to the range of risk changes. The deconstruction network of public health emergencies is a beneficial exploration and will provide a basis for improving the resilience of public health networks in rural areas. |
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| Keywords: | COVID-19 transmission network rural areas dynamics of epidemic transmission suburban village of urban areas Shijiazhuang |
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