| 因子的可预报性和预报模型适用性研究初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈孝源.因子的可预报性和预报模型适用性研究初探[J].大气科学,1994,18(1):122-126. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈孝源 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省气象科学研究所,杭州 310021 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文从因子场与预报量场之间的整体相关性着手，通过典型相关分析来提取因子信息，用求得的典型变量作为新预报因子，经试用表明，新因子的可预报性比原因子有明显提高。 在预报模型的选择上，本文提出了依据预报模型对历史样本实际预测精度的优劣来衡量预报模型的预测能力，从而选用对历史样本预测精度较高的预报模型作未来预报。
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| 关 键 词： | 因子 可预报性 预报模型 |
The Research on the Predictability Using Predictors and the Applicability of Forecast Models |
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| Chen Xiaoyuan.The Research on the Predictability Using Predictors and the Applicability of Forecast Models[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1994,18(1):122-126. |
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| Authors: | Chen Xiaoyuan |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the canonical correlation between the predictand field and predictor field is analysed.We usc the canonical variables which have becn dcrived as new predictors.The rcsults of independentsample tests indicate that the scheme can improve the predictability of predictors. In selecting forecast models,this paper measures the predicting capability of a forecast model according to its real prediction precision of historical samples.Thereby the forecast model with higer precision is used to make future forecast. |
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| Keywords: | predictor predictability forecast model |
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