Climate-change impacts on sagebrush habitat and West Nile virus transmission risk and conservation implications for greater sage-grouse |
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| Authors: | Anne Schrag Sarah Konrad Scott Miller Brett Walker Steve Forrest |
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| Institution: | (1) Northern Great Plains Program, 202 S. Black, Ste. 3, Bozeman, Montana 59715, USA;(2) Department of Renewable Resources, University of Wyoming, 1000 E. University Ave., Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA;(3) Wildlife Biology Program, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812, USA;(4) Northern Great Plains Program, World Wildlife Fund, 202 S. Black, Ste. 3, Bozeman, Montana 59715, USA |
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| Abstract: | Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are threatened by loss of sagebrush habitat and the spread of West Nile virus throughout much of their range in North America;
yet, future impacts of climate change on these potential stressors have not been addressed. Here, we aim to quantify the potential
impacts of climate change on the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for sagebrush and on transmission risk for
West Nile virus in the eastern portion of the species’ range. We used Maxent to model the current and future climatically
suitable habitat for two dominant sagebrush species in the study area, and we used a degree-day model to predict future West
Nile virus transmission risk under likely climate-change scenarios. Our models suggest that areas with the highest future
suitability for sagebrush habitat will be found in southwestern Wyoming and north-central Montana. The degree-day model suggests
that greater sage-grouse in western portions of the study area, which are generally higher in elevation than where West Nile
virus currently occurs, will see increasing risk of transmission in the future. We developed a spatially explicit map of suggested
management actions based on our predictions that will aid in conservation of the species into the coming decades. |
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