| 环境库兹涅茨曲线在文山县城的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁贤法.环境库兹涅茨曲线在文山县城的应用[J].云南地理环境研究,2007,19(3):50-54. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁贤法 |
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| 作者单位： | 文山师范高等专科学校生化系,云南,文山,663000 |
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| 摘 要： | 环境库兹涅茨曲线认为随着经济发展，环境质量先下降后改善，环境质量与收入之间表现为倒U形曲线，这意味着经济发展最终会解决环境问题。应用这一思想，根据1991～2000年文山县城区大气污染指数及1998～2002年盘龙河水污染物浓度与同期人均居民收入进行了回归分析，发现对多数污染物而言，表现为N形的高次曲线能很好的拟合两者之间的关系，据此提出一种简单但普遍的机理来解释EKC曲线，即经济发展对环境质量的正负反馈作用决定其在涨落中演变。
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| 关 键 词： | 环境库兹涅茨曲线 文山县城 N形曲线 正负反馈作用 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-7852（2007）03-0050-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-092006-11-05 |
AN APPLICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE IN WENSHAN CITY |
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| DING Xian-fa.AN APPLICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE IN WENSHAN CITY[J].Yunnan Geographic Environment Research,2007,19(3):50-54. |
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| Authors: | DING Xian-fa |
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| Institution: | Biochemistry Department of Wenshan Teachers College, Wenshan 663000, Yunnan, China |
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| Abstract: | Inspired by Simon Kuznets, a Nobel pfizer, who postulated in 1955 that economic growth and income inequalities follow an inverted curve, it was claimed in 1995 that environmental quality and income follow a same relation, and this implies that economic growth will eventually reduce the environmental degradation. Guided by this idea, the monitoring data of air pollutants index, such as SO2, TSP, etc., of the urban area of Wenshan County over the period from 1991 to 2000 and water pollutants concentration, such as BODs, Total P, Mn, etc., from 1998 to 2002 in Pan long River, which wanders through the urban area of Wenshan county, as the dependent variable, with the corresponding income as independent variable, nonlinear regression analysis is made and the results show that the N-shaped polynomials of order 3 or more can model the relation more suitable than the inverted-U shaped quadratic equations. The economy-environment system is very complex and environmental improvement is affected by a lot of factors that are positive or negative, it is suggested that the EKC curve or N-shaped curve is the result of the interactions between the positive and the negative. This is simple but a universal mechanism to explain the N-shaped curve. Being the economic, traffic and political center of Wenshan Prefecture, which is the national poorest area in China, the need of Wenshan city of economic growth is pressing, and the environmental quality of this city will continue to fluctuate with the income. Under constant economic growth, we can use EKC model to predict the change of environmental quality, and feasible measures should be taken to coordinate the relationship between economic development and environmental protection. |
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| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets Curve Wenshan City N-Shaped curve positive and negative feedbacks |
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