Prioritising resilience policies to reduce welfare losses from natural disasters: A case study for coastal Bangladesh |
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| Institution: | 1. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom;2. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands;3. Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh |
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| Abstract: | Quantified flood risk assessments focus on asset losses, neglecting longer-term impacts to household welfare via income and consumption losses. The extent of welfare losses depends upon resilience – the ability to anticipate, resist, cope, recover and learn from a shock. Here, we use a novel welfare loss modelling framework and perform a high-resolution spatial analysis in coastal Bangladesh to quantify welfare losses from a tropical cyclone under present and future climatic and socio-economic conditions. We further test various adaptation options that are intended to enhance resilience. Results show that poor households experience, on average, 7% of the asset losses, but 42% of the welfare losses. Combining dike heightening, post-disaster support and stronger housing can reduce welfare losses by up to 70%, and foster sustainable development by benefitting the poor, increasing resilience and demonstrating robustness under socio-economic and climatic uncertainties. Thus, a welfare-orientated perspective helps to identify adaptation options that enhance resilience and leave no-one behind. |
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| Keywords: | Resilience Disaster risk reduction Bangladesh Sustainable development |
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