| 基于AHP与模糊综合评价方法的南沙东部岛礁战略价值评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 成王玉,刘永学,李满春,陈振杰,李飞雪.基于AHP与模糊综合评价方法的南沙东部岛礁战略价值评价[J].热带地理,2013,33(4):381-386. |
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| 作者姓名： | 成王玉 刘永学 李满春 陈振杰 李飞雪 |
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| 作者单位： | （1．南京大学 a．江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室；b．地理与海洋科学学院，南京210023；2．南京大学 中国南海研究协同创新中心，南京 210093） |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划课题“南海及其邻域空间情势综合分析与决策模拟系统”资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 南沙群岛是沟通太平洋与印度洋、联系亚欧大陆的交通要冲，具有重要的战略地位，在目前南沙众多岛礁被南海周边国家非法占据的背景下，控制未占领岛礁是维护我国主权和领土完整的有效手段，评价未占领岛礁的战略价值具有深远意义。研究基于AHP和模糊综合评价方法，选取五方礁、信义礁、海口礁、半月礁、舰长礁5座环礁为研究对象，通过建立评价要素指标体系，构建模糊综合评价模型，从主权价值、军事价值、航道控制价值和资源控制价值4个方面对岛礁战略价值进行综合评价，分析其战略意义和建设潜力结果显示，5个环礁的岛礁战略价值从高到低分别为五方礁（90.57）、半月礁（86.99）、信义礁（74.09）、舰长礁（65.94）、海口礁（58.12），其中五方礁和半月礁战略价值最高，具有很大的发展潜力。
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| 关 键 词： | 南海 未占领岛礁 AHP 模糊综合评价 战略价值 |
Strategic Value Evaluation of the Atolls in the Eastern Nansha Islands Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method |
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| CHENG Wangyu
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LIU Yongxue
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LI Manchun
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CHEN Zhenjie
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LI Feixue.Strategic Value Evaluation of the Atolls in the Eastern Nansha Islands Based on AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method[J].Tropical Geography,2013,33(4):381-386. |
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| Authors: | CHENG Wangyu LIU Yongxue LI Manchun CHEN Zhenjie LI Feixue |
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| Abstract: | As the communications center among the Pacific, the Indian Ocean and Eurasia, the Nansha Islands plays an increasingly pivotal strategic role in the future. Currently, as many islands and reefs have been illegally occupied by surrounding countries, controlling the unoccupied reefs would be an effective approach for China to safeguard state sovereignty and territorial integrity. Consequently, to evaluate the strategic value of unoccupied reefs is significant. In this paper, the research approach is based on AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Five atolls are selected as research objects, which are Wufang Atoll, Xinyi Shoal, Haikou Shoal, Banyue Shoal, Jianzhang Shoal, respectively. Through establishing norm index system of evaluation and constructing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the paper comprehensively estimates strategic value of the reefs and analyzes their strategic importance and potential from four aspects: sovereign value, military value, sea channel controlling value and resource controlling value. Results show that the strategic values of the atolls from high to low are Wufang Atoll (90.57), Banyue Shoal (86.99), Xinyi Shoal (74.09), Jianzhang Shoal (65.94), and Haikou Shoal (58.12). The strategic values of Wufang Atoll and Banyue Shoal are the highest, they have great development potential. |
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| Keywords: | South China Sea unoccupied reefs AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation strategic value |
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