| 湖北省冬季平均气温序列订正及其气候评价应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王凯,周月华,高媛.湖北省冬季平均气温序列订正及其气候评价应用[J].气象科技,2015,43(4):697-703. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王凯 周月华 高媛 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉区域气候中心，武汉 430074,武汉区域气候中心，武汉 430074,武汉区域气候中心，武汉 430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201206013）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 在湖北省76个气象台站中，确定参考站22个，订正站31个，采用一元回归订正法，构建各订正站1961—2013年冬季月平均气温订正序列，从统计学和订正误差上进行了对比分析，并将订正结果应用于湖北省冬季影响评价。结果表明，单站评价订正前后差异明显；全省和分区订正前后基本一致，分区中订正前后冬季类型的不一致次数呈增多趋势；台站冬季类型变化明显，由冷冬向暖冬转变，冷冬减少变弱，暖冬增加变强。
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| 关 键 词： | 台站迁移 气温 序列订正 气候影响评价 |
| 收稿时间： | 8/6/2014 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2015/3/18 0:00:00 |
Adjustment of Monthly Winter Mean Air Temperature Series and Its Application in Climate Impact Assessment |
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| Wang Kai,Zhou Yuehua and Gao Yuan.Adjustment of Monthly Winter Mean Air Temperature Series and Its Application in Climate Impact Assessment[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2015,43(4):697-703. |
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| Authors: | Wang Kai Zhou Yuehua and Gao Yuan |
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| Abstract: | There are 22 reference stations and 31 correction stations determined in 76 meteorological stations in Hubei Province. Based on one dimensional regression method, the monthly mean winter temperature correction series in correction stations from 1961 to 2013 are built. The correction series are compared and analyzed in the statistical method and in correction errors, and the results are applied to winter climate impact assessment. The results indicate that the impact of the revised results of stations is significantly greater than those of the divisional and provincial adjustments; the results of divisional and provincial adjustments are basically consistent before and after adjusting, and there is an increasing trend in the number of inconsistency in winter types in provincial adjustment; the changes in winter for typical stations are significant, and there is a transition from cold winter to warm winter, and the reducing of cold winter becomes weakened, and the increasing of warm winter becomes strong. |
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