Recent Wyoming temperature trends,their drivers,and impacts in a 14,000-year context |
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| Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Bryan?ShumanEmail author |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Geology & Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USA |
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| Abstract: | Wyoming provides more fossil fuels to the remainder of the United States than any other state or country, and its citizens
remain skeptical of anthropogenic influences on their climate. However, much of the state including Yellowstone National Park
and the headwaters of several major river systems, may have already been affected by rising temperatures. This paper examines
the historic climate record from Wyoming in the context of ∼14,000-year temperature reconstructions based on fossil pollen
data. The analysis shows that 24 of 30 U.S. Historical Climatology Network records from the state show an increase in the
frequency of unusually warm years since 1978. Statewide temperatures have included 15 years (50%) from 1978 to 2007 that were
greater than 1σ above the mean annual temperature for 1895–1978. The frequent warm years coincide with a reduction in the
frequency of extremely low (<−20°C) January temperatures, and are not well explained by factors such as solar irradiance and
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Linear regressions require inclusion of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations to explain
the multi-decadal temperature trends. The observed warming is large in Yellowstone National Park where 21 years (70%) from
1978 to 2007 were greater than 1σ above the 1895–1978 mean; the deviation from the mean (>1°C) is greater than any time in
the past 6,000 years. Recent temperatures have become as high as those experienced from 11,000 to 6,000 years ago when summer
insolation was >6% higher than today and when regional ecosystems experienced frequent severe disturbances. |
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