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Mid-twenty-first century warm season climate change in the Central United States. Part I: regional and global model predictions |
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| Authors: | Christina M Patricola Kerry H Cook |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14853, USA 3. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, 3150 TAMU, College Station, TX, 77843-3150, USA 2. Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station, C1100, Austin, TX, 78712, USA |
| Abstract: | A regional climate model (RCM) constrained by future anomalies averaged from atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations is used to generate mid-twenty-first century climate change predictions at 30-km resolution over the central U.S. The predictions are compared with those from 15 AOGCM and 7 RCM dynamic downscaling simulations to identify common climate change signals. There is strong agreement among the multi-model ensemble in predicting wetter conditions in April and May over the northern Great Plains and drier conditions over the southern Great Plains in June through August for the mid-twenty-first century. Projected changes in extreme daily precipitation are statistically significant over only a limited portion of the central U.S. in the RCM constrained with future anomalies. Projected changes in monthly mean 2-m air temperature are generally consistent across the AOGCM ensemble average, North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program RCM ensemble average, and RCM constrained with future anomalies, which produce a maximum increase in August of 2.4–2.9 K over the northern and southern Great Plains and Midwest. Changes in extremes in daily 2-m air temperature from the RCM downscaled with anomalies are statistically significant over nearly the entire Great Plains and Midwest and indicate a positive shift in the warm tail of the daily 2-m temperature distribution that is larger than the positive shift in the cold tail. |
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