A probable mechanism of the water level subsidence in wells as a precursor of an earthquake event |
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| Authors: | Liu-Qiao Wang and Shan-Yin Li |
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| Institution: | (1) Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang U?gur Autonomous Region, 830011 Urümqi, China |
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| Abstract: | Case histories of water level subsidence in bore-holes as a precursor of earthquakes are given here. Based on the examples,
a testable quantitative theory for causative mechanism of the precursor—“draining-injecting water model with variable discharge”
is proposed (abbreviated to DIW model). Through analysing the constitution law of which the deformation changes in the porous,
water-saturated media under the effect of exterior stress, as first step of all, the authors suggested first a simple “drainage-natural
restoration model” (abbreviated to DNR model), calculated and gave a group of theoretical precursor curve by using DNR model,
compared the theoretical precursor curves of DNR model with the observational curves, found out the differences of the two
curves, studied the causative physical factors that caused the differences then, revised the DNR model, and finally, the theory
on “draining-injecting water model with variable discharge” in the paper was obtained. The authors deduced general equation
of the two dimensions “draining-injecting water linear source drawdown field” in the paper, suggested and developed the concept
on “domain”. DIW model can also give a possible explanation for both regularity and complexity of this precursor. DIW theory
can quantitatively divide the seismogenic process of the foci on the short-term and impending process into several phases,
and by inversing the discharge functionq(τ) curve, the time values by which the phases are divided were obtained. They will be helpful to predicting the occurrence
time of earthquake and judging the DD and IPE model of the seismogenesis.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 194–201, 1993. |
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| Keywords: | DIW model domain draining-injecting water channel |
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