Evaluation of probabilistic precipitation forecast determined from WRF forecasted amounts |
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| Authors: | Roméo S Tanessong P Moudi Igri Derbetini A Vondou P H Kamsu Tamo F Mkankam Kamga |
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| Institution: | 1. Laboratory for Environmental Modelling and Atmospheric Physics, Department of Physics, University of Yaounde 1, Yaounde, Cameroon
2. Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon
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| Abstract: | This paper examines the connection between the probability of precipitation and forecast amounts from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs over Central and West Africa. A one season period (June–September 2010) was used to investigate the quantitative precipitation forecast–probability relationship. The predictive capability of this relationship was then tested on an independent sample of data (June–September 2011); 2010 and 2011 were wet and dry years, respectively. The results show that rainfall is less likely to occur in those areas where the model indicates no precipitation than it is elsewhere in the domain. Rainfall is more likely to occur in those regions where precipitation is predicted, especially where the predicted precipitation amounts are largest. The probabilities of rainfall forecasts based on this relationship are found to possess skill as measured by relative operating characteristic curves, reliability diagrams, and Brier skill scores. Skillful forecasts from the technique exist throughout 24-h periods for which WRF output was available. The results suggest that this forecasting tool might assist forecasters throughout the season in a wide variety of weather events and not only in areas of difficult-to-forecast convective systems. |
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