| 地震预报唯象模型的适用性研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王时标,姚振兴.地震预报唯象模型的适用性研究[J].地球物理学进展,1997,12(4):45-58. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王时标 姚振兴 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地球物理研究所!北京，100101，中国科学院地球物理研究所!北京，100101 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金!49604051 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 滑动可预报模型，时间可预报模型和双限随机应力水平模型是三种相关的地震预报唯象模型。对于一个指定地区，用哪种模型更合理呢？为解决这个问题，本文提出了两地震预报模式适用程度的数值分析方法，利用这些方法可以合理地鉴别出氖要用的地震预报唯象模型是否适用于指定地区的地震预报分析。
|
| 关 键 词： | 唯象模型 时间可预报模型 适用度 地震预报 |
THE RESEARCH ON THE ADAPTABILITY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION MODELS |
| |
| Wang Shibiao, Yao Zhenxing.THE RESEARCH ON THE ADAPTABILITY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION MODELS[J].Progress in Geophysics,1997,12(4):45-58. |
| |
| Authors: | Wang Shibiao Yao Zhenxing |
| |
| Abstract: | The slip predictable model, thc time prcdictable model, and the double stochastic stress limit model, are three kinds of eqrthquake prediction models. Then, to a given region, which one is the most reasonable? To solvc the problem, we propose a kind or dataidentification analysis method in this paper. As an example, this method is used to analyze the characteristics of earthquakcs in Friuh and Xian Shui River Fault Zone. It is shown that, to Friuli region, the coincidence degree of slip predictable model is from 0.73 to 0.92, and the coincidence degree of time predictable model is from 0.08 to 0.48, and the coincidence degree of the double stochastic stress limit model is from 0.04 to 0.14. Obviously, the most adaptable model, to Friuli region, is the slip predictable model. To Ganning fault section and Kangding fault section, the coincidence degrees of the time predictable model are 0.97 and 0.80 respectively, while the coincidence degrees of the slip predictable model and the double stochastic stress limit model are very low, Therefore, the most adaptable model, to Ganning section and Kangding section, is the time predictable model. The identification method proposcd here is simple to understand, easy to use.Therefore, it is useful to the field of earthquake prediction. |
| |
| Keywords: | earthquake prediction model Time predictable model Slip predictable model coincidence degree |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
