| 基于历史文献的1470-2008年中国西北地区气候干湿序列分区重建 |
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| 引用本文： | 何则,何元庆,王世金,庞娟,辛惠娟,刘婧.基于历史文献的1470-2008年中国西北地区气候干湿序列分区重建[J].中国沙漠,2016,36(5):1278-1285. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何则 何元庆 王世金 庞娟 辛惠娟 刘婧 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000;2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;3. 兰州理工大学, 甘肃 兰州 730030 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院重点部署项目（KJZD-EW-G0304）；冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室自主课题（SKKLCS-ZZ-2016）；国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目（41421061）；国家社会科学基金面上项目（14BGL137）；中国科学院国家外国专家局创新团队国际合作伙伴计划项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于历史文献中的旱涝灾害记录，采用5级制划分的旱涝灾害等级，使用系统聚类法将中国西北地区19个站点划分为7个分区，利用湿润指数公式重建了西北地区7个分区1470-2008年的年分辨率干湿变化序列，比较分析了各分区干湿气候变化的阶段特征、周期性及跃变现象。结果表明：重建序列信度较高，可用作气候干湿变化研究。西北地区7个分区1470-2008年干湿变化存在着11 a、25~35 a和80~100 a的3类周期变化。其中，11 a和25~35 a的两个周期变化在整个分析时间段内表现得较为稳定；80~100 a的周期变化则表现的较不稳定。世纪尺度和气候代尺度的跃变信号各区皆有出现，位于研究区两边的陕西和玉树地区出现最少，宁夏和格尔木地区次之；位置居中的兰州、张掖、西宁等地区跃变信号出现最多，是气候干湿变化的敏感地带。检测出的干湿跃变信号主要集中在17世纪前后，近百年气候干湿变化则相对稳定。
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| 关 键 词： | 干湿气候 气候重建 周期 突变 西北地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-04-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-06-27 |
Reconstruction and Comparative Analysis of Dry/Wet Series during 1470-2008 in Northwest China |
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| He Ze,He Yuanqing,Wang Shijin,Pang Juan,Xin Huijuan,Liu Jing.Reconstruction and Comparative Analysis of Dry/Wet Series during 1470-2008 in Northwest China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2016,36(5):1278-1285. |
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| Authors: | He Ze He Yuanqing Wang Shijin Pang Juan Xin Huijuan Liu Jing |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3. Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730030, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the historical record, dry/wet series since 1470-2008 AD in Northwest China were reconstructed and analyzed. The dry/wet series for 7 regions are expressed by five grades, and dry/wet climate is obtained from a cluster analysis on annual data during 1470-2008 at 19 stations in Northwest China. The variation feature of the dry/wet series, such as phase characteristics, periodicity and abrupt change, are presented. The results show that the reconstruction of sequence reliability is high, and it can be used as a dry/wet climate change research. Wavelet analysis shows that those periodicities existed in the last 500 years, such as the periods of around 11 year, 25-35 year, 80-100 year. Among them, 11 years and 35 years periodicities in the whole analysis period are relatively stable than 80-100 years periodicities. The signs of abrupt changes in the 7 regional dry/wet series were detected by moving t-test. It is indicated that abrupt climatic changes have occurred for every regions in Northwest China during 1470-2008 AD. Both edge of the study area, such as Shaanxi and Yushu, abrupt signal appears fewest times; Ningxia and Golmud is second; the signal appears most times in the middle study area such as Lanzhou, Zhang ye, Xining. It means middle area is the sensitive area of dry/wet climate change. The dry/wet abrupt signal mainly concentrated in the 17th century, dry/wet climate change in recent century is relatively stable. |
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| Keywords: | dry/wet climate climate reconstruction periodicities abrupt change Northwest China |
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