| 俯冲带地震动预测模型SMA2020的评估检验实例——2021年2月13日日本福岛县东部海域MW7.1地震 |
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| 引用本文： | 王大任,刘也,任叶飞,温瑞智.俯冲带地震动预测模型SMA2020的评估检验实例——2021年2月13日日本福岛县东部海域MW7.1地震[J].世界地震工程,2021,0(2):066-73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王大任 刘也 任叶飞 温瑞智 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局工程力学研究所, 中国地震局地震工程与工程振动重点实验室, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150080 |
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| 摘 要： | 地震动预测具有较大不确定性，利用强震动观测记录对已有地震动预测模型进行检验评估对于模型的合理使用具有重要参考意义。针对2021年2月13日发生在日本福岛县东部海域的MW7.1地震，基于残差分析和对数似然函数法对俯冲带地震动预测模型SMA2020的路径项和场地项表征合理性、模型的预测精确性进行了评估。得到结果:（1） SMA2020模型对于地震动的路径衰减表征较为合理，在路径项中考虑了莫霍面反射效应，可以更真实地表征俯冲带深源地震的路径效应。（2） SMA2020模型对于PGV的场地效应表征较为合理，但对于PGA及PSA的场地效应表征有所偏差，还需要进一步检验验证。（3） SMA2020模型对于此次板内地震的短周期IM预测精确性要优于中长周期，对于T=1s的PSA预测表现最不佳。研究结果可为模型的潜在使用者提供有价值的辅助信息，也可以为我国地震动预测模型的开发研究提供理论参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 俯冲带地震动预测模型 SMA2020 MW7.1地震日本本州东海岸MW7.1地震 模型评估 对数似然函数法 |
Case study in evaluating the subduction ground motion model of SMA2020——February 13, 2021, eastern Fukushima Prefecture,Japan MW7.1 offshore earthquake |
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| WANG Daren,LIU Ye,REN Yefei,WEN Ruizhi.Case study in evaluating the subduction ground motion model of SMA2020——February 13, 2021, eastern Fukushima Prefecture,Japan MW7.1 offshore earthquake[J].World Information On Earthquake Engineering,2021,0(2):066-73. |
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| Authors: | WANG Daren LIU Ye REN Yefei WEN Ruizhi |
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| Institution: | Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration; Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration of China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150080,China |
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| Abstract: | Predicting ground motion produces large uncertainty generally, calling for evaluating reliability of the current-used ground-motion models by means of the field strong motion records. Using the residual analysis and log-likelihood function method, the rationality of path and site effect terms of subduction ground motion prediction model, SMA2020 was evaluated. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The SMA2020 model characterizes appropriately the path effect of ground motion. It is validated that the consideration of Moho-interface reflection effect in the model is accepted, which represent correctly the path effect of deep focal earthquakes in the subduction zone; (2) The modeling of the site effect for PGV by SMA2020 performs well, but somewhat biased for PGA and PSA that needs further investigations; (3) For the case of this intraplate event, SMA2020 predicts the short-period intensity measures (IMs) more accurately than the medium-and long-period IMs, and worst for the PSA at T=1s. The results from this study could provide valuable information for potential users of the SMA2020 model, and support theoretically for the development of ground motion models in China. |
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| Keywords: | subduction ground motion model SMA2020 eastern Fukushima Prefecture MW7 1 offshore earthquake Japan MW7 1 offshore earthquake model evaluation Log likelihood method |
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