| 天津地区雷电流幅值及累积概率分布特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋喃喃,刘邕,李霞,李华凝,李猛,银峰.天津地区雷电流幅值及累积概率分布特征[J].气象与环境学报,2022,38(3):137-143. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋喃喃 刘邕 李霞 李华凝 李猛 银峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 天津市气象灾害防御技术中心, 天津 3000742. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室, 南京 2100443. 中国气象科学院灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 1000814. 天津市防雷技术中心有限责任公司, 天津 300074 |
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| 基金项目： | 天津市气象局科研项目(202004ybxm02) |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究天津地区雷电流幅值特征,选取2008—2018年ADTD闪电定位数据,研究分析了雷电流幅值时间分布特征和累积概率分布特征。结果表明:天津地区11 a间共计发生闪电106474次,负闪占比89.26%,远高于正闪;雷电流幅值主要集中在2—100 kA,占闪电总数的97.76%,160—200 kA范围内的闪电次数较少,平均正闪电流强度明显大于负闪电流强度;雷电流强度季节特征较为显著,正闪雷电流强度呈双峰分布,负闪雷电流强度分布较为平均,春季正闪活动频繁,秋季次之,夏季负闪频发,冬季雷电活动发生较少,以正闪居多;雷电流高于25 kA时,正闪电流幅值累积概率显著高于负闪,低于25 kA时,负闪电流幅值累积概率高于正闪。负闪电流幅值的累积概率分布与总闪更为接近,与正闪分布差异显著,闪电总数电流累计概率分布主要受负闪影响。通过对比分析发现IEEE工作组(电气与电子工程师协会)推荐的累积概率分布函数更适合于天津地区,特别是雷电流幅值在25—55 kA范围内时,累积概率与推荐公式基本相同。将天津地区雷电流幅值累积概率公式尝试应用于雷电灾害风险评估中,可为精准确定雷电灾害风险评估参数P_(B)取值,精确计算雷击建筑物损失风险提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 雷电流幅值 累积概率 中值电流 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-12-14 |
Distributions of lightning current amplitude and cumulative probability in the Tianjin area |
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| Nan-nan SONG,Yong LIU,Xia LI,Hua-ning LI,Meng LI,Feng YIN.Distributions of lightning current amplitude and cumulative probability in the Tianjin area[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2022,38(3):137-143. |
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| Authors: | Nan-nan SONG Yong LIU Xia LI Hua-ning LI Meng LI Feng YIN |
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| Abstract: | To reveal the characteristics of lightning current amplitude in Tianjin, ADTD lightning location data from 2008 to 2018 were used to study the characteristics of temporal variations and cumulative probabilities of lightning current amplitudes.The results show that the lightning flashes add up to 106 474 over Tianjin during the 11 years, with the ratio of negative flashes of 89.26%, much higher than that of positive flashes.The amplitudes of lightning current are mainly concentrated in 2-100 kA, accounting for 97.76% of the total number of lightning.There are fewer lightning times in the range of 160-200 kA, and the average positive flash current intensity is significantly greater than the negative flash current intensity.Lightning current intensity appears significant seasonal characteristics.The positive lightning current intensity has a bimodal distribution, whereas the negative lightning current intensity is relatively uniform.The positive lightning current appears more frequently in spring, followed by fall.The negative flashing appears frequently in summer whereas flashing is less active in winter which most appears as positive flashing.When the lightning current is higher than 25 kA, the cumulative probability of positive flash current amplitude is significantly higher than that of a negative one, and when the lightning current is lower than 25 kA, the cumulative probability of negative flash current amplitude is higher than that of a positive one.The cumulative probability distribution of the negative flash current amplitude is closer to the total, with significant differences from the cumulative probability distribution of the positive flash current amplitude.The cumulative probability distribution of the total lightning current is mainly affected by the negative flash.Through comparison, it is found that the cumulative probability distribution function recommended by the IEEE working group (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers) can objectively reflect the probability distribution characteristics of lightning current amplitude in Tianjin, especially when the lightning current amplitude is in the range of 25-55 kA, and the cumulative probability is the same as the recommended formula.The cumulative probability formula of lightning current amplitude in the Tianjin area is tried to be used in the lightning disaster risk assessment, which can provide an effective reference for accurately determining the value of the lightning disaster risk assessment parameter (PB) and accurately calculating the loss risk of lightning strikes. |
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| Keywords: | Lightning current amplitude Cumulative probability Median current |
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