| 基于地缘位势模型的中国与南高加索三国地缘关系探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 巴士奇,牛雪利,姚宇阳,陈瑛.基于地缘位势模型的中国与南高加索三国地缘关系探讨[J].地理科学进展,2022,41(11):2135-2151. |
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| 作者姓名： | 巴士奇 牛雪利 姚宇阳 陈瑛 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院，西安 710119 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41671118) |
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| 摘 要： | 特殊的地理位置与突出的资源禀赋优势致使南高加索三国向来为多个文明交汇和大国博弈的地区，探究中国与其地缘关系的演变对双方的经济与地缘合作具有重要意义。论文在国际关系学权力理论的基础上，构建地缘位势模型刻画2000—2020年中国与南高加索三国的地缘关系演变特征。研究发现：①2000—2020年中国在南高加索三国的地缘位势呈现出逐年上升趋势与“三阶段”演变特征，即2000—2005年为低位稳定阶段，2006—2012年为起步增长阶段，2013—2020年为快速增长阶段。②从2000—2020年地缘位势平均值、增长速度与增长幅度3个方面看均呈现出中国—亚美尼亚>中国—阿塞拜疆>中国—格鲁吉亚的空间特征。截至2020年，中—亚地缘位势最高；从地缘位势时序特征看，中国—亚美尼亚起步水平低，后期快速上升；中国—阿塞拜疆起步水平高，后期波动上升；中国—格鲁吉亚起步水平低，后期均匀上升。③影响双方地缘关系演变的驱动因素分为正向驱动力与负向驱动力。正向驱动力包括地缘区位、地缘经济、地缘文化与地缘外交，其中地缘区位是本底力，地缘经济是主导力，地缘文化是潜在力，地缘外交是根源力。负向驱动力一方面包括南高加索三国内部地缘政治的欠稳定性因素与地缘文化的强分裂性因素，另一方面包括中国对南高加索三国地缘外交的难介入性因素与地缘经济的弱竞争性因素。两类驱动系统的内部各要素相互作用，共同影响双方地缘关系的演变。
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| 关 键 词： | 地缘位势 地缘关系 权力 南高加索三国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-04-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-08-08 |
Geo-relationship between China and the South Caucasus region based on the geo-potential model |
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| BA Shiqi,NIU Xueli,YAO Yuyang,CHEN Ying.Geo-relationship between China and the South Caucasus region based on the geo-potential model[J].Progress in Geography,2022,41(11):2135-2151. |
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| Authors: | BA Shiqi NIU Xueli YAO Yuyang CHEN Ying |
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| Institution: | School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China |
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| Abstract: | Due to their geographical location and outstanding resource endowments, the South Caucasus countries have always been an area where multiple civilizations meet and great powers play games. It is of great significance to explore the evolution of China's geo-relationship with them for the future cooperation in economic development and political strategies. Based on the power theory of international relations, this study constructed a geo-potential model to describe the evolution characteristics of the geo-relationship between China and the South Caucasus countries from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that: 1) The geo-potential between China and the South Caucasus countries from 2000 to 2020 showed an upward trend year by year and experienced three development stages. In the period from 2000 to 2005 the geo-potential was low and stable, the period from 2006 to 2012 was the initial growth stage, and the period from 2013 to 2020 was a period of rapid growth. 2) In terms of the average geo-potential in 20 years, growth rate, and growth range, the spatial trend is China-Armenia > China-Azerbaijan > China-Georgia. As of 2020, the geo-potential of China-Armenia was the highest; In terms of the temporal changes of geo-potential, China-Armenia started at a low level and rose rapidly in the later period; China-Azerbaijan started at a high level and fluctuated in the later period; China-Georgia started at a low level and rose evenly in the later period. 3) The driving mechanisms that affected the evolution of these geo-relationships can be divided into positive mechanism and negative mechanism. The positive driving forces include geo-location, geo-economy, geo-culture, and geo-diplomacy. Geo-location is the background force, geo-economy is the dominant force, geo-culture is the potential force, and geo-diplomacy is the root force. The negative driving forces include, on the one hand, the unstable internal geo-politics and the strong divide of the internal geo-culture in the region, and on the other hand, the difficulty of intervention of China's geo-diplomacy and the weakness of competition of China's geo-economy. The internal elements of the two driving systems interact with each other and jointly affect the evolution of the geo-relationship between China and the South Caucasus region. |
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| Keywords: | geo-potential model geo-relationship power South Caucasus |
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