| 美国失踪人口的时空格局演变与影响机制 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 林喆,李钢,周俊俊,石金龙,徐锋,王莺莺.美国失踪人口的时空格局演变与影响机制[J].热带地理,2022,42(9):1475-1487. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 林喆 李钢 周俊俊 石金龙 徐锋 王莺莺 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大学 中丹学院，北京 100049;2.西北大学，城市与环境学院，西安 710127;3.西北大学，体育教研部，西安 710127;4.西北大学，陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室，西安 710127 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41871144);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(16YJAZH028);西北大学“人地关系与空间安全”特色优势团队建设项目(2019) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于Doe Network平台数据，综合运用数理统计、空间分析和地理探测器等方法，探讨了美国1996―2021年失踪人口的基本特征、时空格局与影响机制。结果表明：1）美国失踪多发生在青少年（13~18岁）与成年时期（19~59岁），且失踪人口数量随年龄增长呈先增后减的趋势；男性失踪人数多于女性，但失踪高发年龄略滞后于女性；各种族中黑人面临着最大的失踪风险。2）时间上，自1996年以来，失踪人口的年际变化数量先呈现波浪式上升趋势，2017年达到峰值后大幅下降；受气温和节假日影响，夏季6―8月和冬季12月为失踪高发期，2―4月为失踪的低谷期。3）空间上，失踪人口在州尺度上呈由沿海边境地区向内陆递减的特征，失踪高发区域随时间推移，自东、西沿海地区与南部美墨边境同时向美国内陆推进；县尺度上呈边缘集中成片，内部零星分散的特征。4）失踪人口数量变化是多因素共同作用的结果，主要受地区人口流动性、人均GDP、生育率以及易失踪人群基数影响，人口环境因子与经济、社会因子结合后对美国失踪人口空间分异的解释力增强，达到80%以上。5）人口失踪可用“社会失范理论”解释，社会目标和手段的脱节导致社会失范，进而诱发越轨行为，导致人口失踪概率的上升。
|
| 关 键 词： | 失踪人口 失踪风险 社会环境 社会失范理论 地理探测器 美国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-06-07 |
Spatiotemporal Evolution and Formation Mechanism of Missing-Person Incidents in the United States |
| |
| Zhe Lin,Gang Li,Junjun Zhou,Jinlong Shi,Feng Xu,Yingying Wang.Spatiotemporal Evolution and Formation Mechanism of Missing-Person Incidents in the United States[J].Tropical Geography,2022,42(9):1475-1487. |
| |
| Authors: | Zhe Lin Gang Li Junjun Zhou Jinlong Shi Feng Xu Yingying Wang |
| |
| Institution: | 1.Sino-Danish College, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;2.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China;3.Department of Physical Education, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China;4.Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The problem of missing persons is a major global challenge, which causes serious harm to their families and societies. For this study, we collected 9,193 U.S. missing-persons records for the years 1996-2021 from the Doe Network platform. We used mathematical statistics and Moran's I index to analyze the socio-demographic characteristics, spatio-temporal distribution and its evolution patterns. Then the geodetector was applied to conduct an in-depth analysis of the influencing factors in socio-cultural, economic and demographic aspects. Based on above findings, a sociological theory of the formation mechanism of the missing-person phenomenon in the United States was proposed. Major findings included: (1) With age increasing, the number of missing persons initially increased and then dropped gradually. The highest missing rate was found among adolescents (13-18 years old) and adults (19-59 years old). Although more males than females were reported missing, the high-incidence period of males lagged slightly behind that of females. The high missing rate among adolescent females was linked to sexual crimes, including sex trafficking and rape, while that of adult men tended to be caused by family discord or debt problems. Among racial groups, black people faced the greatest risk of going missing. (2) From 1996, the number of missing-person incidents initially showed a wave upward trended and then fell sharply, after peaking in 2017, because of a series of immigration regulations. In 2020, it declined dramatically again, due to COVID-19. Influenced by the temperature, school holidays, and festivals, most people were reported missing during the months of June, August, and December. Only few missing incidents happened between February and April. (3) Spatially, at the state level, the missing population distribution decreased from the coastal border area to the inland area; over time, areas with a great number of missing-person incidents advanced simultaneously from the eastern and western coastal areas and the southern US-Mexico border to US inland areas. At the county level, they were concentrated on the edge and scattered internally. (4) Missing-person incidents were caused by the interaction of multiple factors; regional population mobility, fertility rate, and the number of vulnerable people had a positive impact on numbers of missing people, while per capital GDP had a negative impact. The power of population-based environmental factors was significantly enhanced after be interacted with social and economic factors, on explaining the missing-person spatial distribution, all of which were above 80%. (5) The underlying mechanism of missing-person incidents could be understood from the perspective of "social anomie". In other words, the disconnect between social goals and means led to social anomie, which then induced deviant behavior, including abduction, murder, and running away from home, increasing the likelihood of missing-person incidents. Finally, we offered suggestions for disappearance prevention and further study directions. The findings provided a basic understanding of the missing-person phenomenon, contributing to global scientific information, which could aid in preventing missing-person incidents. |
| |
| Keywords: | missing persons missing risk social environment social anomie theory Geodetector United States |
|
| 点击此处可从《热带地理》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《热带地理》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
