| 西南地区拐卖犯罪时空特征与影响因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 夏海,李钢,周俊俊,于悦,杜梦佳,冯忱熹.西南地区拐卖犯罪时空特征与影响因素[J].热带地理,2022,42(9):1534-1546. |
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| 作者姓名： | 夏海 李钢 周俊俊 于悦 杜梦佳 冯忱熹 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.西北大学 城市与环境学院，西安 710127;2.陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室，西安 710127 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41871144);西北大学“仲英青年学者”支持计划(2016);西北大学“人地关系与空间安全”特色优势团队建设项目(2019) |
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| 摘 要： | 以拐卖犯罪的重灾区也是典型拐出源区的西南地区（云南、贵州、四川、重庆）为研究区，利用2008—2020年中国裁判文书审判数据，综合运用文本分析、数理统计、空间分析和负二项回归检验等方法，探索西南地区拐卖犯罪的时空分异与影响因素。结果表明：1）时间分布上，拐卖犯罪整体高发于2009—2014年，呈“三峰两谷”波浪形变化，“三峰”出现于2009、2012与2014年，而于2010和2013年出现“两谷”；最高发月份为12月，拐卖妇女次高发月份集中在3、6、7、9月，而拐卖儿童次高发月份为5、7、8、9月。2）空间分布上，拐卖犯罪呈显著的“东南—西北”轴线状分布，与川渝、云贵交界线高度吻合，省际交界区域是热点地域；省域空间分布以云南省为最，重庆市最次；微观地点多发生在人流量大的医疗、车站等场所以及乡村住宅附近。3）拐卖犯罪案发量受人口性别比和城乡居民最低生活保障人数的正向影响，而农村居民人均可支配收入、城镇登记失业率、少年儿童抚养比和客运量具有负向影响；其中，人口性别比、客运量和城乡居民最低生活保障人数对拐卖妇女犯罪影响更大。最后，基于影响因素分析从加强社会建设、创新预防机制、强化打击机制3个方面提出防控治理对策。
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| 关 键 词： | 拐卖犯罪 拐卖儿童 拐卖妇女 负二项回归 社会解组理论 犯罪防控 西南地区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-07-12 |
Spatial and Temporal Patterns,Influencing Factors,and Prevention and Control Measures of Human Trafficking in Southwest China |
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| Hai Xia,Gang Li,Junjun Zhou,Yue Yu,Mengjia Du,Chenxi Feng.Spatial and Temporal Patterns,Influencing Factors,and Prevention and Control Measures of Human Trafficking in Southwest China[J].Tropical Geography,2022,42(9):1534-1546. |
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| Authors: | Hai Xia Gang Li Junjun Zhou Yue Yu Mengjia Du Chenxi Feng |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, China;2.Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and, Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, China |
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| Abstract: | The crime of trafficking has a long history of causing serious harm to the victims, their families, and social stability, which has aroused widespread concern from the public and academic circles. Studies have shown that the southwest region of China has the highest incidence of trafficking crimes; thus, this study examines the trial data of Chinese judgment documents of the southwestern regions (Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing) from 2008 to 2020. The study comprehensively uses text analysis, mathematical statistics, spatial analysis, and negative binomial regression test to explore spatial and temporal variation patterns and the factors influencing them. The study then proposes countermeasures for prevention, control, and management. The research shows that: (1) The overall high incidence of trafficking crimes occurred in the period 2009-2014, showing a wavy pattern of "three peaks and two valleys." The "three peaks" occurred in 2009, 2012, and 2014, whereas the "two valleys" occurred in 2010 and 2013. The highest incidence was in December, with the next highest incidences concentrated in May, June, July, and September for women, and May, July, August and September for children. On the whole, trafficking crimes occurred mostly in the summer months. The four provinces have had different degrees of inter-year and inter-month variations in the trafficking of women and children. (2) The overall spatial distribution is in the shape of a significant "southeast-northwest" axis, which is highly consistent with the boundary line between Sichuan and Chongqing, Yunnan, and Guizhou, and the inter-provincial border area is a hotspot for trafficking crimes. The provincial spatial distribution is the highest in Yunnan Province and the lowest in Chongqing. Trafficking mostly occurs at medical care institutions, stations, and rural residences with a large flow of people. (3) Negative binomial regression analysis of the random effects panel shows the incidence of trafficking crimes as influenced by the gender ratio of the population and the number of urban and rural residents' minimum living standards, while the per capita disposable income of rural residents, the registered urban unemployment rate, the child dependency ratio,and the volume of passenger transport have negative effects; whereas the population sex ratio, passenger traffic, and the number of urban and rural residents on the minimum subsistence allowance have a greater impact on the crime of trafficking of women. Finally, based on the analysis of the influencing factors, the three aspects of strengthening social construction, innovating prevention mechanisms, and strengthening combating mechanisms are proposed as the prevention and control countermeasures, with a view to dismantle the breeding ground for the crime of trafficking of women and children. |
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| Keywords: | human trafficking trafficking in children trafficking in women negative binomial regression social disorganization theory crime prevention and control southwest China |
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