| 中国水文预报技术发展的回顾与思考 |
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| 引用本文： | 张建云.中国水文预报技术发展的回顾与思考[J].水科学进展,2010,21(4):435-443. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张建云 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京水利科学研究院, 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏, 南京, 210029 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 回顾了中国水文预报技术的发展历程,阐述了中国水文预报技术从经验相关法、流域水文模型,到预报系统发展的整个过程。较详细地介绍了中国常用的水文预报方法、模型和预报系统,及其各自特点和应用条件等,客观评价了中国水文预报技术的水平,深入分析了高强度人类活动引起的下垫面变化和以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化对流域产流和汇流机制的影响,分析了变化环境下水文预报面临的问题和挑战。展望了中国水文预报技术的发展方向,指出了中国未来水文预报技术的研究重点。
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| 关 键 词： | 水文预报 技术 发展 展望 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-12-30 |
Review and reflection on China's hydrological forecasting techniques |
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| ZHANG Jian-yun.Review and reflection on China's hydrological forecasting techniques[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,21(4):435-443. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jian-yun |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Resource Institute, Nanjing 210029, China |
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| Abstract: | The history of China's hydrological forecasting and technique progresses are reviewed in this paper,which involves the use of empirical correlations,catchment hydrological modeling,and the development of hydrological forecasting systems.The commonly used methods and models for hydrological forecasting are discussed in detail together with the conditions for applications.The current skill of China's hydrological forecasting techniques is assessed objectively.In-depth analysis of the impacts of intense human-induced land-surface changes and global warming on the catchment runoff generation and flow concentrating is provided.Emerging issues and challenges in hydrological forecasting under a changing environment is also analyzed.Finally,the future direction of China's hydrological forecasting development is prospected together with research focuses on the subject. |
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| Keywords: | hydrological forecasting technique development prospective |
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