| 中国近30年来气象统计预报进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢炯光,曾琮,纪忠萍.中国近30年来气象统计预报进展[J].气象科技,2003,31(2):67-79,83. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢炯光 曾琮 纪忠萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东省气象局气象台,广州,510080 |
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| 摘 要： | 近30年来，多元统计分析方法有了长足的进步，涌现出不少新方法、新技术。文章着重介绍了近30年来气象统计预报在中国气象业务科研中的一些应用和发展，主要从多元统计分析和时间序列分析上来选材，将非统计意义的模糊集方法、人工智能(人工神经网络等)、灰色系统、车贝雪夫多项式展开等也归入到统计方法中。另外，近年来气象界用得较多的卡尔曼滤波、分形、分维等也被涉及。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国 多元统计分析方法 气象统计预报 时间序列分析 模糊集 人工智能 灰色系统 |
STATISTICAL FORECAST OF METEOROLOGY FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS IN CHIAN |
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| Xie Jiongguang,Zeng Cong,Ji Zhongping.STATISTICAL FORECAST OF METEOROLOGY FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS IN CHIAN[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2003,31(2):67-79,83. |
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| Authors: | Xie Jiongguang Zeng Cong Ji Zhongping |
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| Abstract: | For the last 30 years, the multi statistical analysis method has been greatly advanced.The present study focuses on some application and development of statistical forecast of meteorology. The materials are chosen mainly from multi statistical analysis and analysis of time series. The fuzzy set method?artifical intelligence (artifical neural networks, etc.)? grey system and Chebysher polyhomial expansion that are not statistical are included in the statistical method. In addition Kalman filter?fractal dimension etc. that are widely used in the domain of the meteorology in recent year is refered to in this paper. |
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| Keywords: | multi-statistical analysis time series analysis meteorological statistical forecast |
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