| Analysis and prognosis of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific on the background of global warming |
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| 作者姓名： | LI Yongping WANG Xiaofeng YU Runling QIN Zenghao |
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| 作者单位： | LI Yongping1*，WANG Xiaofeng1，YU Runling1，QIN Zenghao11. Open Laboratory for Typhoon Research，Shanghai Typhoon Institute，China Meteorological Administration，Shanghai 200030 |
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| 摘 要： | 1 IntroductionAs is well known, the increasing greenhousegas and SO2extricated into the atmosphere due to hu-man activities have alreadyresulted in the global sur-face air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temper-ature (SST) rising. The globally mean surf…
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| 关 键 词： | 西北太平洋 热带气旋 发生频率 全球变暖 预后 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-05-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-02 |
Analysis and prognosis of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific on the background of global warming |
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| LI Yongping,WANG Xiaofeng,YU Runling,QIN Zenghao.Analysis and prognosis of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific on the background of global warming[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2007,26(1):23-34. |
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| Authors: | LI Yongping WANG Xiaofeng YU Runling and QIN Zenghao |
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| Institution: | Open Laboratory for Typhoon Research, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030 |
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| Abstract: | As revealed by the observational study, there are more tropical cyclones generated over the western North Pacific from the early 1950s to the early 1970s in the 20th century and less tropical cyclones from the mid-1970s to the present. The decadal change of tropical cyclones activities are closely related to the decadal changes of atmospheric general circulation in the troposphere, which provide favorable or unfavorable conditions for the formation of tropical cyclone. Furthermore, based on the simulation of corresponding atmospheric general circulation from a coupled climate model under the schemes of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 emissions scenarios an outlook on the tropical cyclone frequency generated over the western North Pacific in the coming half century is presented. It is indicated that in response to the global climate change the general circulation of atmosphere would become unfavorable for the formation of tropical cyclone as a whole and the frequency of tropical cyclones formation would likely decrease by 5% within the next half century, although more tropical cyclones would appear during a short period in it. |
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| Keywords: | IPCC SRES A2 and B2 general circulation anomaly frequency of tropical cyclone |
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