| HLAFS产品暴雨动力过程相似释用法及业务应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 杨仁勇,伦绪勇,杨绍洪.HLAFS产品暴雨动力过程相似释用法及业务应用[J].气象,2003,29(7):27-30. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 杨仁勇 伦绪勇 杨绍洪 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京气象学院401信箱,210044
2. 贵州省黔东南州气象台 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 贵州省气象局“短平快”2 0 0 0年课题项目资助。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据新预报业务流程的要求，用MICAPS平台中的HLAFS产品场与暴雨发生的初始、中间、结束过程相对应的三维空间物理量场的相似程度，根据场相似的数量作综合判别分析作出有无区域暴雨的预报。使用动力过程相似释用法实现了从资料准备到最后预报结果生成的程序化、自动化、客观化。根据天气过程分类建立的两类模型以场平均距离为依据，作出暴雨预报相似判别分析结果，其预报的检验效果令人满意，1999～2002年5～9月平均Ts超过33％。
|
| 关 键 词： | HLAFS 暴雨 模型 相似预报 动力过程 MICAPS |
Similar-Dynamic Process Interpretation and Operational Application of HLAFS Products to Heavy Rain Prediction |
| |
| Yang Renyong,Lun Xuyong Yang Shaohong.Similar-Dynamic Process Interpretation and Operational Application of HLAFS Products to Heavy Rain Prediction[J].Meteorological Monthly,2003,29(7):27-30. |
| |
| Authors: | Yang Renyong Lun Xuyong Yang Shaohong |
| |
| Abstract: | With the need in the new forecasting operation process,by virtue of the similarity between the HLAFS products in MICAPS platform and the three-dimensional space physics field relative to the initial,development and extinction of the heavy rain,a prediction of the on/off region heavy rain is made under complex examination and analysis which is based on the magnitude interpretation and application. The programming, automation and objectivity are realized in the whole process. Based on the mean field distance of the two types of weather process,the heavy rain prediction with the analog discriminatory analysis results is made. The examing results are reasonable, the mean TS during May-September,1999-2002 is more than 33%. |
| |
| Keywords: | HLAFS MICAPS heavy rain analog forecast dynamic process |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象》下载免费的PDF全文 |
