Prediction of the occurrence of Related Strong Earthquakes in Italy |
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| Authors: | Inessa A Vorobieva Giuliano F Panza |
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| Institution: | (1) International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Varshavskove sh. 79 korp. 2, Moscow, Russia;(2) Istituto di Geodesia e geofisica, Via dell'Universita' 7, I-34100 Trieste, Italy;(3) International Center for Theoretical Physics, Miramar, I-34100 Trieste, Italy |
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| Abstract: | In the seismic flow it is often observed that a Strong Earthquake (SE), is followed by Related Strong Earthquakes (RSEs), which occur near the epicenter of the SE with origin time rather close to the origin time of the SE. The algorithm for the prediction of the occurrence of a RSE has been developed and applied for the first time to the seismicity data of the California-Nevada region and has been successfully tested in several regions of the world, the statistical significance of the result being 97%. To date it has been possible to make five successful forward predictions, with no false alarms or failures to predict.The algorithm is applied here to the Italian territory, where the occurrence of RSEs is a particularly rare phenomenon. Our results show that the standard algorithm is successfully directly applicable without adjustment of the parameters. Eleven SEs are considered. Of them, three are followed by a RSE, as predicted by the algorithm, eight SEs are not followed by a RSE, and the algorithm predicts this behaviour for seven of them, giving rise to only one false alarm. Since, in Italy, often the series of strong earthquakes is relatively short, the algorithm has been extended to handle such a situation. The result of this experiment indicates that it is possible to attempt to test a SE, for the occurrence of a RSE, soon after the occurrence of the SE itself, performing timely  preliminary recognition on reduced data sets. This fact, the high confidence level of the retrospective analysis, and the first successful forward predictions, made in different parts of the World, indicates that, even if additional tests are desirable, the algorithm can already be considered for routine application to Civil Defence. |
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| Keywords: | Aftershocks prediction Italy |
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