Identifiability analysis: towards constrained equifinality and reduced uncertainty in a conceptual model |
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| Authors: | Enrique Muñoz Diego Rivera Fernando Vergara Pedro Tume José Luis Arumí |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chileemunozo@ucsc.cl;3. Department of Water Resources, Universidad de Concepción, Chillán, Chile;4. Department of Civil Engineering, Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Concepción, Chile |
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| Abstract: | AbstractDifferent sets of parameters and conceptualizations of a basin can give equally good results in terms of predefined objective functions. Therefore, a need exists to tackle equifinality and quantify the uncertainty bands of a model. In this paper we use the concepts of equifinality, identifiability and uncertainty to propose a simple method aimed at constraining the equifinal parameters and reducing the uncertainty bands of model outputs, and obtaining physically possible and reasonable models. Additionally, the uncertainty of equifinal solutions is quantified to estimate the amount by which output uncertainty can be reduced by knowing how to discard most of the equifinal solutions of a model. As a study case, a conceptual model of the Chillán basin in Chile is carried out. From the study it is concluded that using identifiability analysis makes it possible to constrain equifinal solutions with reduced uncertainty and realistic models, resulting in a framework that can be recommended to practitioners, especially due to the simplicity of the method. |
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| Keywords: | identifiability analysis equifinality uncertainty surface hydrology water balance model |
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