Structural uncertainty assessment in a discharge simulation model |
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| Authors: | Xiaoyong Zhang Georg Hörmann Junfeng Gao Nicola Fohrer |
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| Institution: | 1. Ecology Centre, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management , University of Kiel , Olshausenstrasse 75, D-24118, Kiel, Germany xzhang@ecology.uni-kiel.de;3. Ecology Centre, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management , University of Kiel , Olshausenstrasse 75, D-24118, Kiel, Germany;4. Nanjing Institute of Geography &5. Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Nanjing, 210008, China |
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| Abstract: | Abstract A major goal in hydrological modelling is to identify and quantify different sources of uncertainty in the modelling process. This paper analyses the structural uncertainty in a streamflow modelling system by investigating a set of models with increasing model structure complexity. The models are applied to two basins: Kielstau in Germany and XitaoXi in China. The results show that the model structure is an important factor affecting model performance. For the Kielstau basin, influences from drainage and wetland are critical for the local runoff generation, while for the XitaoXi basin accurate distributions of precipitation and evapotranspiration are two of the determining factors for the success of the river flow simulations. The derived model uncertainty bounds exhibit appropriate coverage of observations. Both case studies indicate that simulation uncertainty for the low-flow period contributes more to the overall uncertainty than that for the peak-flow period, although the main hydrological features in these two basins differ greatly. Citation Zhang, X. Y., Hörmann, G., Gao, J. F. & Fohrer, N. (2011) Structural uncertainty assessment in a discharge simulation model. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 854–869. |
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| Keywords: | hydrological modelling perceptual model model structural uncertainty Kielstau Germany XitaoXi China PCRaster |
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