Simulating the impacts of land-use and climate change on water resource availability for a large south Indian catchment |
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| Authors: | J WILK D A HUGHES |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Water and Environmental Studies , Link?ping University , S-581 83, Link?ping, Sweden E-mail: iulwi@tema.liu.se;2. Institute for Water Research, Rhodes University , PO Box 94, Grahamstown, 6140, South Africa |
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| Abstract: | Abstract A monthly rainfall-runoff model was calibrated for a large tropical catchment in southern India. Various land-use and climatic change scenarios were tested to assess their effects on mean annual runoff and assured water yield at the Bhavanisagar Reservoir in Tamil Nadu, India. The largest increase in runoff (19%) came from converting forest and savanna (the indigenous control scenario) to agriculture. Mean annual runoff decreased by 35% after conversion to commercial forest and 6% after partial conversion to tea plantations. The predicted climate scenarios of reduced dry season rainfall decreased the annual runoff by 5% while enhanced annual rainfall caused a 17% increase in runoff. Even if land-use and climate changes had relatively large effects on runoff, the changes in reservoir yield which can be assured every year, were often less severe. This was probably due to the buffering effect of the reservoir and variation in the mean annual runoff. |
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| Keywords: | land-use change climate change hydrology water resources runoff reservoir yield India |
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