Precursory accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the Northwestern Anatolia Fault Zone |
| |
| Authors: | B C Papazachos A S Savvaidis G F Karakaisis C B Papazachos |
| |
| Institution: | Geophysical Laboratory, School of Geology, University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki 54006, Greece |
| |
| Abstract: | We present the results of a systematic search for the identification of accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the broader northern Aegean area and in northwestern Turkey. We found that accelerating seismic deformation release, expressed by the generation of intermediate magnitude earthquakes, is currently observed in NW Turkey. On the basis of the critical earthquake model and by applying certain constraints which hold between the basic quantities involved in this phenomenon, it can be expected that this accelerating seismic activity may culminate in the generation of two strong earthquakes in this area during the next few years.The estimated epicenter coordinates of the larger of these probably impending earthquakes are 39.7°N–28.8°E, its magnitude is 7.0 and its occurrence time tc=2003.5. The second strong event is expected to occur at tc=2002.5 with a magnitude equal to 6.4 and epicenter coordinates 40.0°N–27.4°E. The uncertainties in the calculated focal parameters for these expected events are of the order of 100 km for the epicenter, ±0.5 for their magnitude and ±1.5 years for their occurrence time. |
| |
| Keywords: | Accelerating seismic deformation Anatolia Aegean |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
