| 江浙沪地区土地利用变化模拟和景观格局分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡瑞山,董锁成.江浙沪地区土地利用变化模拟和景观格局分析[J].资源与生态学报（英文版）,2013(2):141-148. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡瑞山 董锁成 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 |
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| 基金项目： | Foundation： National Natural Science Foundation of China （41271556）; the National Basic Research Priorities Program of China （2007FY 110300） |
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| 摘 要： | 土地利用／覆被变化对于生态系统多样性和区域生态经济系统可持续性具有深远的影响。本文基于地理信息技术，以江浙沪地区土地利用遥感解译数据为基础，采用景观格局分析法分析了江浙沪地区的景观格局特征；运用CA—Markov模型对江浙沪地区土地利用时空变化进行了模拟。1980-2005年期间，江浙沪地区景观格局变化特征是建设用地增加迅速，耕地集聚减少，建设用地增加主要来自耕地转移，其贡献率达到93．11％。各类斑块类型的破碎度提高；林地和建设用地斑块平均分维数增加，斑块形状趋于复杂，斑块空间分布趋于集中。总体景观破碎度不断提高，景观多样性和景观异质性增加，景观均匀度有所提升：2005年CA—Markov模型模拟结果和遥感解译数据具有高度一致性，Kappa指数达到91％，2010年和2015年模拟结果显示，耕地减少和建设用地增加趋势显著，耕地和林地的减少呈加速状态，建设用地增加的速度降低。未来发展需提高土地利用效率和注重生态格局安全，在提高城市化水平的同时又能兼顾生态保护，以提高区域可持续发展能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 江浙沪地区 景观指数 土地利用变化 CA-MARKOV模型 |
Land Use Dynamics and Landscape Patterns in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang |
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| HU Ruishan,DONG Suocheng.Land Use Dynamics and Landscape Patterns in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2013(2):141-148. |
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| Authors: | HU Ruishan DONG Suocheng |
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| Institution: | 1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, B eijing 100101, China; 2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China) |
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| Abstract: | Land use change and landscape patterns have a large effect on land productivity and ecosystem biodiversity. Based on geographical information system technology and remote sensing data related to land use and land cover of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and Shanghai （Jiang-Zhe-Hu area）, we analyzed patterns of landscape change and predicted land use dynamics using the CA-MARKOV model. We also analyzed the conversion rate and area among landscape classes using the CA-Markov model. We found that from 1980 to 2005, there was a significant decrease in the area of farmland, and much of this landscape was transformed into settlements. Most of the landscape classes have become fragmented and isolated. The areas of farmland, settlement land and water tend to be complex in their shape and spatial clustering. The shapes of other land class patches have become simpler, and overall landscape fragmentation has increased. Landscape diversity and heterogeneity have increased. The CAMARKOV model predicted that settlement land will continue to grow from 2005 to 2015, but the speed of conversion will be reduced. The speed of the reduction in farmland and forest has increased, and increased settlement areas are clustered along the Yangtze River. Land use dynamics and change in the landscape pattern have affected land productivity and made the ecosystem more sensitive and fragile in this study region. |
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| Keywords: | Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai area landscape indices land use change CA-MARKOV Model |
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