| 基于扩展LMDI模型的安徽省建设用地变化的碳排放效应测度(英文) |
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| 引用本文： | 张乐勤,陈素平,祝亚雯,许信旺.基于扩展LMDI模型的安徽省建设用地变化的碳排放效应测度(英文)[J].资源与生态学报（英文版）,2013,4(2):186-192. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张乐勤 陈素平 祝亚雯 许信旺 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]池州学院资源环境与旅游系,池州247000 [2]池州学院经济贸易系,池州247000 |
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| 基金项目： | Foundation： the Key Research Fund of Anhui Provincial Education Department （No.2010sk502zd） and the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.41071337）. |
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| 摘 要： | "双轮驱动"发展模式背景下,我国建设用地扩展特征明显。建设用地变化的碳排放效应是导致大气中碳排放量增加的重要因素。运用安徽省统计年鉴数据,采用改进的Kaya恒等式及LMDI分解模型,对安徽省1997-2011年碳排放的驱动因素进行了定量测度。结果表明:经济增长、建设用地扩展、人口密度变化对碳排放具有增量效应,经济增长为第一驱动因素,年平均贡献率达266.32%,建设用地扩展为重要驱动因素,其碳效应年均值为640.57万t,年均贡献率为187.30%,人口密度变化对碳排放驱动影响较小。能源结构变化、能源强度下降对碳排放具有抑制作用,年均贡献率分别为-212.06%、-58.115%。基于碳排放因素分解结果,针对性提出了碳减排的政策途径,可为政府通过合理组织土地利用,实现碳减排提供科学依据,有利于安徽生态省建设及减排目标实现,也可为省域尺度建设用变化的碳排放效应研究提供借鉴。
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| 关 键 词： | 建设用地扩展 碳排放效应 Kaya恒等式 LMDI分解模型 安徽省 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-10-08 |
The Measurement of Carbon Emission Effect of Construction Land Changes in Anhui Province Based on the Extended LMDI Model |
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| ZHANG Leqin,CHEN Suping,ZHU Yawen,XU Xinwang.The Measurement of Carbon Emission Effect of Construction Land Changes in Anhui Province Based on the Extended LMDI Model[J].Journal of Resources and Ecology,2013,4(2):186-192. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Leqin CHEN Suping ZHU Yawen XU Xinwang |
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| Institution: | 1.Resource Environment and Tourism Department, Chizhou College, Chizhou 247000, China;2.Economic and Trade Department, Chizhou College, Chizhou 247000, China |
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| Abstract: | In the context of ＂two-wheel drive＂ development mode, China＇s construction land shows significant expansion characteristics. The carbon emission effect of construction land changes is an important factor for the increase of carbon emissions in the atmosphere. In this study, the drivers of carbon emissions in Anhui Province from 1997 to 2011 were quantitatively measured using the improved Kaya identity and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index. The results show that： economic growth, expansion of construction land and changes in population density have incremental effects on carbon emissions. The average contribution rate of economic growth as the first driver is 266.32 percent. The construction land expansion is an important driving factor with annual mean carbon effect of 6.4057 million tons and annual mean contribution rate of 187.30 percent. But the change in population density has little impact on carbon emission driving. Energy structure changes and energy intensity reduction have inhibitory effects on carbon emissions, of which the annual mean contribution rate is -212.06 percent and -158.115 percent respectively. The targeted policy approaches of carbon emission reduction were put forward based on the decomposition of carbon emission factors, laying a scientific basis to rationally use the land for the Government, which is conducive to build an ecological province for Anhui and achieve the purpose of emission reduction, providing a reference for the research on carbon emission effect of changes in provincial-scale construction land. |
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| Keywords: | construction land expansion carbon emission effect Kaya identity Logarithmic Mean DivisiaIndex decomposition model Anhui Province |
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