Characterizing the Seasonal and Directional Varying Properties in
A Marine Environment |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yi and CHENG Tao |
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| Institution: | Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 639798, Singapore;Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Hubei Polytechnic of Technology, Huangshi 435003, China |
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| Abstract: | With noticing an increasing number of failure events for offshore structures in the present days, it is now realized that modeling the marine environment especially for exceptional environmental conditions is quite important. It is recognized that a possible improvement in the traditional modeling of environmental characteristics, which are the basis for the load models for structural analysis and design, may be needed. In this paper, the seasonal and directional varying properties in modeling the ocean parameter, the wave height, are studied. The peak over threshold (POT) method is selected to model the extreme wave height by utilizing a non-stationary discrete statistical extreme model. The varying parameters are taken into account with a changing pattern to reflect the seasonal and directional dependent behavior. Both the magnitude and the occurrence rate of the extreme values are investigated. Detailed discussion on the continuity of the established model is also given. The importance of the proposed model is demonstrated in reliability analysis for a jacket structure. The sensitivity to the changing marine environment in reliability analyses is investigated. |
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| Keywords: | peak over threshold method climate change reliability analysis offshore structures point process extreme value distribution significant wave height |
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